The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Stephens: Top Startups Excel at Every Stage Without Late Unlocks
“If you go back and you look at the best companies in any portfolio, they were kind of the best companies at every stage. Like they were incredibly awesome at A, they were incredibly awesome at B, they were incredibly awesome at C. Very rarely do you see a comp…”
Stephens: Anduril Could Reach $100B With a Fraction of Lockheed's Revenue
“Andrew operates at higher margins, much faster growth rates. I think we could be worth Over a hundred billion dollars with a tiny fraction of Lockheed's revenue.”
Stephens: A Rebooted Defense Prime Could Be Worth Hundreds of Billions
“If you can actually be a next generation rebooted version of Lockheed Martin or Northrop Grumman, that company could be worth hundreds of billions of dollars.”
Stephens: The 2024 Venture Market Is Repeating 2021 Bubble Mistakes
“And I think now in 20, 24, looking back on what happened, it's very easy in retrospect to say, Wow. We really let that get out of hand. And now we've got, we have to do a recap. We have to do a down round. We have to do all this crazy structure, but we're doin…”
Stephens: There Will Likely Not Even Be Two Companies Like SpaceX
“There's not gonna be a hundred space X's. There's probably not going to be two space X's”
Stephens: Blue-Collar Workers Shifted Republican Because Leaders Ignored Them
“You know, you see these communities of blue collar industrial workers that have historically been Democrats that have shifted over to being populist Republicans. And it's because they're just ignored.”
Stephens: Thiel Based Founders Fund in SF to Avoid Sand Hill Gossip
“And this, for example, is why Founders Fund was why Peter put us in San Francisco when everyone else was on Sand Hill, because he wanted us to avoid getting caught up in this, like, are they going and meeting all the way down the street with all the other peop…”
Stephens: Founders Fund Was the First VC to Promote Being Founder-Friendly
“We were the first fund that was talking about being founder friendly”
Stephens: Founders Fund Only Invests if a Deal Can Return the Fund
“At Founder's Fund, we won't do the investment if we don't believe it can return the fund.”
Stephens: Every Big Founders Fund Win Had a $100B Advocate
“If you look at any of the big outcomes across our portfolio, whether it's you know, Spotify, Stripe, Airbnb, Palantir, SpaceX, Andrel stem centric. So if you look at all of these big outcomes for us, every single one of them, there was someone on the team bang…”
Stephens: Winning Defense Programs of Record Takes Around Three Years
“And this isn't something that's going to take six months. It's something that's probably going to take closer to three years.”
Stephens: Authorities for Government Startup Procurement Already Exist
“All of the authorities that need to exist to buy products from non-traditional companies, they all exist.”
Stephens: Refuses Profitable Vice Investments Driving Dystopia
“And so as an investor, when I look at something and I'm like, yeah, this is a vice investment. Maybe it's probably going to make a lot of money because it leads to addiction or loneliness or You know, whatever. I don't want to be involved in that. I don't want…”
Stephens: Flexport Was First Major Founders Fund Check in 2014
“The first big check that I wrote at Founders Fund was Flexport. And no one was thinking about Supply chain logistics in 2014.”
Stephens: Founders Fund Will Always Stick to Traditional Series A Strategy
“Our core vision is we just want to invest in the best founders, building the best companies that are going to be category, category defining. And I think you can do that through a very traditional venture model of, can we get a check into the series A and can …”
Stephens: US Government, Not Defense Startups, Decides Foreign Military Buyers
“This is probably like, not to put a, you know, a target on your back, Harry, but this is the most naive question that non-defense people ask, because the reality is that we don't decide. The US government decides.”
Stephens: Plans to Return to Government Civil Service Within 15 Years
“I am deeply committed to the idea of civil service. And I don't know if it's in five years or 10 years or 15 years, but at some point I want to be back as a public servant working for the good of our nation and our allies and partners.”