why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Morin: The market bubble around Nvidia H100 GPUs will burst
“There's going to be a need for inference. Very hard to say whether it will be worth, you know, everybody's money to do it on H 100. That is a bubble that I think will blow some time.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2025
Morin: AI chip oversupply will lead to GPUs selling at 30% value
“I very much worry there will be an oversupply of these chips. The problem is, is that, you know, remember, the chips are the collateral. So, you know, somewhere, you know, in the US or whatever, there's going to be a data center with like a thousand GPUs that …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Morin: Nvidia may lose market dominance in AI inference and training
“I think that there's a shot that they don't.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2030
Morin predicts AI compute will be 95% inference within five years
“In five years, I would say 95% inference, five percent training.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Morin: Running standalone AI model weights will eventually become obsolete
“Models in the sense of, you know, getting, you know, weights and running them is something that is ultimately going away because you know, in favor of like full blown backends, right? You feel like you're talking to a model, but ultimately you're talking to an…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Morin: Nvidia will remain dominant in AI inference due to availability
“The thing is these chips are on the market. They're here. I can, you know, out tab on Chrome and get one. That is something that, you know, I don't take lightly. Availability that is right. So I think Nvidia is used to stay at least if not for the H-one hundre…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Morin: Hardware bans will force China to out-innovate Western AI long-term
“They are constrained, so they are bound to Bound to do better. They can just not buy their way into better compute. So I think it hinders their success, but I think it's short term to think that way.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2028
Morin: Etched and Visor will bring high-speed inference chips at lower prices
“So my bet is, I think there will be, you know, chips on the market that do that at much lower price. And there's two companies I see going in that direction. One is called Etched. And the other one is called Visor.”
Prediction Held up
Morin: Compute-in-memory will be the next frontier in AI hardware
“So this is the next frontier, and the idea is that instead of, like, transferring the data between external memory and the CPU and do the compute there, you actually, you know, bring the CPU to the memory and you do everything. It's very, you know, it's crazy …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Morin: AI model market will resemble car makers, not winner-take-all
“Is mental model in terms of model providers, ah, they'll be like car makers. Right? There's no win or tickle. Everybody will have their own.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Morin: Future AI backend APIs will run locally in enterprise clouds
“The thing is, that API will be running locally, right? Locally, I mean, in your own, you know, cloud, you know, instances, and so on.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Morin: Latency reasoning is 2025's fundamental AI infrastructure shift
“Latency reasoning. Definitely. This year. So, you know, as I was saying, like, the shift from throughput, so how speed my answers to how long it takes for my answer complete to appear. That is probably one of the fundamental, like this year, right?”