The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Belsky: AI future will not be dominated by a few mega models
“I think it's actually common belief that there are going to be a few mega models in the future that are going to do everything for every company in the cloud. What we're saying is actually it will probably be the opposite.”
Belsky: Uber and Lyft's data and route optimization will be their moat
“Because I think that the data that is being collected and the optimization of the routes based on the data is a moat, so to speak. And I think a lot of the technology for managing these dispatch systems and autonomous vehicles will be created by those companie…”
Belsky: Future transportation will not be accessed via individual branded apps
“I think we're failing to think about how people actually interact with these services in the future, and I just find it hard to believe that it will all still be through their individual branded apps.”
Belsky: AI-suggested variations will yield better UI design with fewer cycles
“We're in a world where AI will suggest alternative scenarios. You can try variations and just look and, you know, with the mistake of the eye, find a better solution. That, or at least something you want to A-B test. And so I think that the product development…”
Belsky: Adobe's design team led the early development of Firefly
“You know, we had our design team actually build a team within that did all of the early developments of Firefly. It was a very like design driven exercise to figure out the interfaces and how they integrated into the products.”
Belsky: Snapchat consistently rethinks its first-mile onboarding for new cohorts
“You know, Snapchat, I think, is probably one example. Of a company that I feel has consistently rethought their first mile experience for a different cohort of new customers.”
Belsky: Twitter persisted with outdated onboarding even as user motives shifted
“You know, Twitter really persisted with making people build their own timelines, even past the moment where people weren't joining Twitter to follow people. They were just joining Twitter for news, and then they were faced with this prospect of having to culti…”
Belsky: Most product teams review features without full customer journey context
“If the product review is about a particular part of the product, you're not doing the customer service if you're just jumping in and looking at that, which is, by the way, what most teams do.”
Belsky: Shutting down secondary features immediately boosted Behance's core engagement
“We killed groups, and three days later, you know, some people complained, but the engagement on the platform went up on Project And then we killed tip exchange, another uptick over the next few days.”
Belsky: I cannot see myself being a traditional VC long-term
“Also realized pretty quickly that I could not see myself being a traditional VC for the next 10 to 15 years.”
Belsky: Social media will become increasingly passive and ambient
“And so if I were to look ahead and say, will social media be more manual and more active or more passive, I think it will certainly be more passive.”
Belsky: Focus groups universally rejected the Behance concept in 2006
“We had a focus group back in 2006, and we got a group of creatives together that we wanted to build a portfolio network for. You know, we asked folks, do you need, you know, we described what we were building, and universally everyone said, no, I don't need th…”
Belsky: Adobe replaced Photoshop's blank start page with templates and tutorials
“When I came back to Adobe four years ago in this chief product officer role, I looked at products like Photoshop that literally opened up with a blank black page of, you know, just nothingness, right? And it's like, there was no orientation of what to do now o…”
Belsky: Harvard study shows perceived progress is the best workplace motivator
“There's a study I wrote about in the book about a professor at Harvard Business School named Teresa Mabley, who studied creativity in organizations, and she had thousands of people keep journals, and then she analyzed the journals after a period of time and fo…”