The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Venture capital fund returns decline as fund sizes increase
“There's a lot of studies that suggest that returns go down as funds get larger in AUM. There's a ton of studies that show that.”
Consumer startups reach profitability on $4M to $8M
“These companies in the consumer space, they tend to get to profitability by raising four to eight million dollars. Not 50 to eighty million dollars, as they do in the tech space.”
Honest Company entered recapitalization due to overvaluation
“Where Honest Company is a good company, it just got stuck in a post-money trap. It got passed over for acquisition, and now it was in a little bit of recapitalization mode with Catterton because it raised too much at far too high of a valuation.”
Almost all DTC brands must eventually sell offline
“It turns out that almost every DTC company eventually realizes when they get to a We got to start building our own stores or, you know, selling these products offline because the online channels are just too expensive”
Most funded consumer startups will sell below their last valuation
“Consumer companies typically it'll be a graveyard. There'll be some exceptions. Unilever bots, Dollar Shave Club, because they needed the capabilities of DTC. That'll happen a few more times, but many times they will be sold for half of the last round valuatio…”
Large CPG firms do not spend on R&D
“Innovation isn't coming from the large CPG companies because they don't spend anything on R&D. It's coming from the small ones, so they're all looking for that innovation.”
Tech investing returns over the past 15 years were very poor
“Returns in tech Investing over the past 15 years have been very poor.”
Union Square Ventures reversed its anti-crowdfunding stance to invest in CircleUp
“Union Square had said very energetically that they would never invest into an online equity investing platform. And they met us, and they changed the Their view because they realized that we were filling a need”
USV and Benchmark are rare exceptions to VC fund bloat
“Union Square Ventures, Benchmark, or some other exceptions to what I said.”
RXBar raised only $10,000 before selling to Kellogg's for $600M
“RX Bar, a snack bar, raised 10,000 dollars to sell for six hundred million dollars to Kellogg's.”
Halo Top Creamery generates hundreds of millions in revenue
“Halo top ice cream, which is now a couple hundred million dollar revenue company”
CircleUp's 2012 seed round was rejected by over 60 investors
“And raised our seed round, which Maveron and Clayton Christensen wrote the book called the innovators dilemma through his hedge fund, Rose Park. They led that back in in 2012. That was a very hard round for us to raise, to be frank with you. And I think we wen…”