The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Solely heuristic-based private investing will die off over time
“Over time, we do think that the concept of private investing, based solely on human heuristics, that will die off over time.”
Hampton Creek will suffer a massive down round
“From tech VC firms, and we're seeing, you know, the mayonnaise company with a nine hundred million dollar valuation and fifteen million dollars revenue. That math doesn't make any sense. It's offensive. They're not going to have a successful exit. They will ha…”
Title III crowdfunding will suffer from severe adverse selection
“I think what's more likely, to be frank with you, is that companies will fail in trying to raise from accredited investors and then turn to unaccredited investors. That's adverse selection, and that concerns me.”
Data-driven private investing will start outside Silicon Valley
“I think that that trend will start outside of early stage tech and outside of Silicon Valley. So it'll start first in an industry where there's a ton of data and where business models are largely the same.”
Most funded consumer startups will sell below their last valuation
“Consumer companies typically it'll be a graveyard. There'll be some exceptions. Unilever bots, Dollar Shave Club, because they needed the capabilities of DTC. That'll happen a few more times, but many times they will be sold for half of the last round valuatio…”