why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 7 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2030
Freise: $0-$100M ARR AI Scaling Speeds Will Not Become the Norm
“So I'm making the bold prediction that you have just seen three of the incredible winners in the space, but they will be not the norm for whatever comes afterwards.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2030
Freise: Bitcoin and the Euro will gain share in a multi-currency reserve system
“I think Bitcoin will take a larger share as will the Euro, but it's going to be more of a mix.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2030
Freise: KKR's investment in space firm OHB will be a big winner
“My space company in Bremen, which is OHP, we just did that investment. That's going to be a big winner given everything's going on.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2030
Freise: KKR's DNA will never extend to early-stage venture
“I don't think that the DNA of KKR and of other later stage firms. It extends to what Insight does or what growth funds do. It will never extend to venture because it's a different skill set. It's a very different skill set.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2035
Freise: KKR Europe's assets under management will double or triple in 10 years
“If you ask me will KKR Europe's asset under management, ah, double and triple over the next 10 years, the answer is yes.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Freise: Other defense leaders will emerge alongside Helsing's founder within five years
“Torsten is, is the best, but in five years time, we look back and say, of course, Torsten couldn't have done it all by himself. There will be more, there will be others.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Freise: AI productivity gains will trigger a painful disruption phase
“It's too early to tell. I totally, I, well, I think it will. However, productivity gains, which will be extremely beneficiary to the world, don't mean that the challenges I just mentioned will be solved, because there will be this disruption phase where many, …”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2035
Freise: KKR aims to increase retail investor base to 50%
“We have six hundred seventy billion under management now. This number will go up massively, but what I want to see, I think historically the kind of individual retail type, broad based investor base is roughly 20%, maybe 30%. I want to see that to go to 50%.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Freise: Innovative European defense and hard-tech startups are emerging faster than expected
“Short answer to your question is, yes innovation, what, you know, what you know best Is the answer to these problems. But I wouldn't be so negative. They are coming now much faster than some people realize.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2035
Freise: US dollar's share of global reserves will decline slightly over ten years
“I do think in 10 years time, the percentage of reserves the US represents will probably have reduced slightly.”