The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Brown: Imaginary expects 10x venture returns from disciplined physical product investments
“For us, our view is that if we're thoughtful about how these companies are capitalized, if we're thoughtful about the state at which we enter into the businesses, and if we're thoughtful about how we're valuing these companies, That based off the growth trajec…”
Brown: DTC brands lacking profitable unit economics will fail to raise capital
“Well, I think you're going to have a moment in time when a lot of these businesses need to show that they have the unit economics that allow them to be profitable, and I think if they're not able to show that, they're going to have a hard time continuing to gr…”
Brown: Hot pre-launch startups often skip Series A and go straight to Series B
“Companies that are founded by exciting entrepreneurs in intriguing spaces are able to raise A meaningful amount of cash before they launch, and then if they take off, you know, they often almost skip the traditional series A and go straight to a larger series …”
Brown: E-commerce shifted from liquidation to DTC models around 2009
“I think that the wave of e-commerce that had happened prior, which was the whole liquidation era of Guild Group and Rulala and Outlook was beginning to pass. Those companies were still very much present. But I think the tides started to change in that moment, …”
Brown: Online customer acquisition costs for DTC brands will continue to rise
“I think we're finding that tax are going up. That's not going to change. The price of online acquisition is going up. That's not going to change.”
Brown: Sub-$100M venture funds are deliberately moving earlier to seed stage
“Well, we've actually gone, and I think a lot of funds of our size, call it kind of sub a hundred million dollar funds, have made a very deliberate choice to move earlier.”
Brown: Legacy retailers will increasingly acquire DTC brands through mid-market M&A
“I think you'll probably see more mid-market M&A. I think, you know, we're already seeing a lot of companies being acquisitive in the sort of food and beverage space, certainly in the beauty category. I think we'll probably see that across the board where you h…”
Brown: Consumer habit of starting product searches on Amazon will not change
“We're definitely seeing a world that's dominated by Amazon. I think that's for sure. We're definitely seeing a consumer funnel of, I start on Amazon for just about every purchase that I make, and I don't think that's going to change.”