The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 38 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Schroepfer: Cheap clean energy access is humanity's primary rate limiter
“Availability of cheap, clean energy is probably the biggest rate limiter to human progress right now.”
Schroepfer: Team organization trumps individual talent quality
“I think people way, way undervalue this sort of coordination and optimization. I've seen the difference between a well-organized team and a not well-organized team, and it, I think it often trumps the, like, quality of the individuals.”
Schroepfer: Meta's early AI lab built the skills that powered Llama
“We built an AI lab at Meta and it was kind of like, huh, this AI thing is going to be pretty big. Let's like start building the skill set. And that's why you see Meta doing Lama now and a bunch of other things, because they, we had all the people, we had all t…”
Schroepfer: Climate startups must offer cheaper or better products, not green premiums
“When I invest, I'm like, I'm a capitalist. I'm like, your pitch to your customers is we are cheaper or we are better. And they're like, oh, by the way, we're good for the environment is like the little asterisks at the end. Because my thesis is like, most peop…”
Schroepfer: Abundant clean energy is achievable within a decade
“I don't think in the next few years we will have, like, unlimited clean energy. I think in the next decade we have a really good shot at it.”
Schroepfer: Commercial nuclear fusion power will arrive in the 2030s
“I think we got a couple credible shots on goal on fusion. And I'm like, that shows up in the 20 thirties.”
Schroepfer: Self-driving cars will be ubiquitous in 10 to 15 years
“I think self-driving cars went through a huge boom, and then like, now everyone thinks they suck, and like, they kind of miss that they actually work now, and so like, I think in 1015 years, it's going to be like, whoa, you drive your car? That's weird. I thin…”
Schroepfer: Climate change is a $10 trillion economic problem
“As I learn more about climate, I'm like, this is a 10 trillion dollar problem.”
Schroepfer: When in doubt, execution speed beats good strategy
“I would say two things. I think generally speaking, when in doubt, I think speed, speed often beats sort of good strategy. I think if you kind of zigzag more quickly, you'll probably get there quicker than there. So I think, you know, when in doubt, go for spe…”
Schroepfer: Meta's 2013 thesis predicted computing moving to AR, VR, AI
“Our analysis was, no, it's gonna both be more integrated into my real world, you know, smart glasses and immersive in VR, and it's gonna be smarter. It's gonna be AI.”
Schroepfer: It is currently a bad time to start an EV company
“It, it's a crowded market. It's hard. It's a bad time to start a new electric car company.”
Schroepfer: China installed more solar in 2023 than total US capacity
“China last year installed more solar in 20, 23 than exists in the United States.”
Schroepfer: Commonwealth Fusion set world record for superconducting electromagnets
“And they set the world record for most powerful electromagnets using superconductors.”
Schroepfer: US National Ignition Facility achieved net energy gain in fusion
“We've done that. We know it works. It releases more energy out than we threw at it.”
Schroepfer: Climate crisis is fundamentally a humanitarian issue, not about the planet
“I think the climate crisis is fundamentally a humanitarian crisis. I think this is the thing that people get wrong. It's like, it's not about the planet. The planet will be fine. It's gonna outlive us. It's about how many people are suffering and are going to …”
Schroepfer: Gas vehicles will feel obsolete within 10 to 15 years
“So, like, I think in a decade, you're gonna wander around and be like, That gas car, like, look at that. It's like a Model T. It's like, wow, that's weird. I can't believe we used to do that. Like, that's kind of what you're going to do. Maybe not in 10, maybe…”
Schroepfer: Treat board meetings as strategic workshops, not progress reports
“The most high-functioning boards, are the ones in which the team is actually treating the board as a resource, as a set of external people who are invested in the success of the company, but bring a different set of broad perspectives to the problem, and so yo…”
Schroepfer: Limit board advice volume so founders retain key priorities
“I try to say fewer things, but more impactful, generally speaking, because it's easy to fill the time with lots of advice, and if I give 30 pieces of advice to a founder, they're gonna remember five of them, and so I sort of like, what are the, I'm always runn…”
Schroepfer: High-functioning startups often get trapped in local maximums
“I think the biggest thing by far that orgs do is like high functioning orgs is they're like doing the right thing. They're just like operating in a local maximum using inertia to go in a direction. And you've got to either provide them with context or sort of …”
Schroepfer: Top operators tailor execution cadence to the specific problem
“And I think the biggest mistake people make is they sort of, it's the one hammer problem, which is just like speed, speed, speed, or planning, planning. And like the best operators are, it's a much more nuanced. It's like, ah, I've got the lay of the lamb. Thi…”
Schroepfer: Major tech successes are never obvious in real time
“Everyone thinks these big successes are obvious at the time. I, my experience is exactly the opposite.”
Schroepfer: Power markets are experiencing major disruption and startup opportunity
“I see a lot of disruption happening in, in the power markets, and so I'm really excited about this, because disruption means there's a shakeup, and there's opportunities for, like, market changes and entrance, and, like, That's what you need to have a viable c…”
Schroepfer: Climate tech startup Mill sold out 10,000 units at $1,000 each
“Like mill is sold out the first run of 10,000 units. They sold them for a thousand bucks each.”
Schroepfer: Horizontal modular scaling de-risks hard tech companies
“This sort of, like, horizontal scale, I think works really well for hard tech, because it sort of decouples all of these risks, and then you can just sort of imagine, imagine what happens from there.”
Schroepfer: Hardware manufacturing creates compounding scale moats
“The good news is once you get there, like you start getting like a moat that's really deep. So if I'm building a product and shipping and I'm at a five million unit scale and you're at a 500,000 unit scale, like I'm fundamentally cheaper than you are. So, and …”
Schroepfer: Hardware moats require tens to hundreds of millions in capital
“I mean, it depends on the company and what they're doing, but it's, you know, tens to hundreds of millions of dollars. It's not millions of dollars.”
Schroepfer: Avoid investing in startups reliant on future legislative changes
“If your business is premised on some future law being passed, then, like, you know, that's a binary outcome that is completely outside of your control, and unless I have some information that makes me bullish that that's gonna happen, we're probably not gonna …”
Schroepfer: Investment memos should focus on key success assumptions
“I think of like my deal memo is like, what do I have to believe for this company to be wildly successful? Right? And so it's like, and it's usually like a one, two, three. It's like, I have to believe this. I have to believe that. I believe this happens. This …”
Schroepfer: Solar is already the cheapest global energy source by a large margin
“In many places around the world, like solar is the cheapest form of power generation by a large margin.”
Schroepfer: Clean tech requires a 1,000x increase in venture capital
“We need thousand X venture investment. We need a thousand X to startups. We need more people switching from other careers into clean tech.”
Schroepfer: Superior technical specs rarely guarantee commercial customer adoption
“The world is full of this thing is cheaper, better, faster, but there's a whole bunch of reasons why people don't want to buy it.”
Schroepfer: Passing on great founders in weak initial markets caused biggest misses
“The biggest like misses I've made Is sort of trying to outsmart the entrepreneur, and that's basically, ooh, I love that entrepreneur. They're so good, but like, I don't really like the market they're in, and then they pivot into a different market that I real…”
Schroepfer: Great companies go through periods where consensus views them as junk
“My experience is even the best companies go through some significant period of time where everyone thinks they're crap. So, and common wisdom is like, it's a pile of junk. And so like, I think there's this notion that like, oh, we'll spot it and we'll know it'…”
Schroepfer: Evaluating deals across different venture stages creates unfair comparisons
“It is difficult to look across many stages at once, because you're just comparing unequal objects. And so, if you're, like, looking at two PhDs at a lab, who, like, literally haven't talked to a customer yet, and a Series F company, you know, with fifty millio…”
Schroepfer: Building a company is a game of inches, not big moments
“Building a company, it feels like it's big moments, but it's more a game of inches.”
Schroepfer: Great leaders act as conductors to align top talent
“I describe a good leader as sort of like a conductor of an orchestra. It's like I can have the best players in the world, but if they're all playing from a different song sheet, it's gonna sound terrible.”