The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Maples: High-Priced Seed Deals Like Character.ai Won't Return 100x
“Expensive, high-priced investment, and hopefully it works, but you're not going to make a thousand times your money on that deal. You're probably not going to make a hundred times your money, even in the best of circumstances.”
Maples: US Dollar Will Lose Reserve Status Without Fiscal Responsibility
“It's inevitable that the dollar will not be the reserve currency that If we are not more responsible with the stewardship of our money.”
Maples: Most overfunded startups without PMF won't clear preference stacks
“I think most of them won't clear their preference stack.”
Maples: SpaceX could become the most valuable company in the world
“I don't have to squint too hard to see a world where they're the most valuable company in the world.”
Maples: Elon Musk won't be able to mass-fire federal workers
“Like, I don't think that Elon is going to be able to do what he did with, say, Twitter, and fire a bunch of people and, you know, change all the rules.”
Maples: Floodgate Will Never Scale to a Multi-Hundred-Million-Dollar Fund
“No, we'd never be that big. I don't think we'll ever be as big of a fund as like the Series A guys.”
Maples: Momentum-driven VC investors will struggle in shifting markets
“But I think that the people that have played the momentum game are going to struggle.”
Maples: Roughly 30 great startups will be created every year
“There's so many startups, there will always be 30 or so every year that are great.”
Maples: Floodgate will not write seed checks under $500,000
“Probably about as low as I would go as half a million bucks.”
Maples: Tech companies will be valued on fundamentals for 10-15 years
“It may not happen again for another 10, 15 years. The next 1015 years, it's, companies I think are going to be much more valued on fundamentals and what they're really worth, but there are these windows, usually they last about 18 months, where the difference …”