why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levchin: Pure LLMs are hitting efficiency limits; AI will expand beyond them
“Agree. But I don't think we are going to stay with LLMs forever. I think we're going to expand the systems that use LLMs.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Levchin: Every laid-off Affirm employee acknowledged the company had overhired
“Every single person I talked to had said, hey, I get it. This happened. We grew too fast. We overhired. I understand.”
Assertion Supported
Levchin: Affirm grew 35% last quarter, outpacing Klarna's 32%
“I think they announced that they grew 32% last quarter. I think we announced that we grew 35%.”
Assertion Partly supported
Levchin: Affirm has gained market share against all BNPL competitors
“For the last several quarters, from estimates, so we have been taking share in the market against all competitors, not, not just them.”
Assertion Supported
Levchin: FICO scores badly misrepresent young people and new immigrants
“In the process, we realized that the old FICO score actually works fairly well for people that have had a fairly long financial history. And so if you are a well-established baby boomer, aged, my parents' age sort of person, then the FICO score probably serves…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levchin: Bitcoin will create value, simplification, and efficiency in finance
“Bitcoin is kind of one on the very outer edges of stuff That will create some really interesting value and simplification and efficiency”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Levchin: Affirm records every decision in a post-mortem culture
“We have a whole culture of postmortems at a firm where we record every decision we make”
Assertion Supported
Levchin: Affirm's 2023 layoff was company's lowest morale point
“We had to do a layoff in about two years ago and that was morale lowest point for me and I think everyone around me”
Assertion Supported
Max Levchin includes a Big Lebowski quote in every Affirm shareholder letter
“If you are a careful student of my shareholder letters, of which I have now written on the order of, it cannot possibly be 16, but I think it's 16 or 15 you will see that every single one of them contains a reference to the movie Big Lebowski.”