The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Grimm predicts Israel will achieve near and total conquering of Gaza
“I think what we end up seeing is we end up seeing the, ah, ultimately kind of the near and total sort of conquering of Gaza,”
Grimm: Anduril will become the sixth defense prime alongside incumbents
“I don't see it as like Lockheed, Boeing, Northrop, Raytheon, et cetera. We're going to take all of them down. I don't see that at all. I think it's going to be like, we're going to become the sixth prime alongside them and that there's still plenty, plenty, pl…”
Grimm predicts Russia-Ukraine negotiated settlement within the next year
“My guess is that and it's a complete conjecture here. I have no insider information whatsoever, but my guess is that we see some sort of detente or some sort of negotiated settlement take place probably over the next year would be my guess. And if I had to bet…”
Grimm: Anduril will absolutely not hire to meet demographic quotas
“No, absolutely not. And anybody who tells you that they are, I think, like, I think is misguided.”
Matt Grimm: China will not invade Taiwan if Western deterrence holds
“I, Think that if America does its job and the West and our allies do their jobs, I think no.”
Grimm predicts many newly funded defense tech startups will implode
“Ultimately, I'm a little nervous about a lot of these companies kind of getting over their skis and then getting one or two fundraisers under them and then realizing it's a lot harder than it looks on paper and ultimately struggling and probably, probably impl…”
Grimm: Anduril will succeed regardless of whether Trump or Harris wins
“I think I think we were going to succeed under either, like we've succeeded under President Biden, we succeeded under President Trump before that, so I don't think I don't think there's a massive difference to Andrew.”
Matt Grimm: Robot-on-Robot Warfare Is Likely in Future Conflicts
“Robot on robot warfare, I think is pretty likely.”
Matt Grimm: Anduril will go public and likely be his final company
“I think probably. I mean, we're all in this for the long haul. I think probably. We're gonna ring the bell one day, and then we're, you know, gonna build a massively successful publicly traded company, and like, yeah, it's probably my last.”
Matt Grimm: I will listen to this interview four times to critique myself
“I guarantee at the end of this, I'm going to listen to this interview no less than four times making notes of different tacks I could have taken or different points I should have made or different arguments I could have gone down.”