The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 21 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Grimm predicts Israel will achieve near and total conquering of Gaza
“I think what we end up seeing is we end up seeing the, ah, ultimately kind of the near and total sort of conquering of Gaza,”
Grimm: Anduril will become the sixth defense prime alongside incumbents
“I don't see it as like Lockheed, Boeing, Northrop, Raytheon, et cetera. We're going to take all of them down. I don't see that at all. I think it's going to be like, we're going to become the sixth prime alongside them and that there's still plenty, plenty, pl…”
Grimm predicts Russia-Ukraine negotiated settlement within the next year
“My guess is that and it's a complete conjecture here. I have no insider information whatsoever, but my guess is that we see some sort of detente or some sort of negotiated settlement take place probably over the next year would be my guess. And if I had to bet…”
Grimm: Anduril will absolutely not hire to meet demographic quotas
“No, absolutely not. And anybody who tells you that they are, I think, like, I think is misguided.”
Grimm: The West lacks munitions capacity for a prolonged nation-state war
“The US right now does not have the production capacity, nor does the UK, nor does Australia, kind of the West at large, to make enough munitions to fully equip a prolonged nation on nation conflict.”
Matt Grimm: China will not invade Taiwan if Western deterrence holds
“I, Think that if America does its job and the West and our allies do their jobs, I think no.”
Grimm: Lockheed Martin spent 4x more on buybacks than R&D in 2023
“Like last year alone, Lockheed Martin, the twenty-twenty-three numbers, Lockheed Martin spent six billion dollars on stock buybacks. They only spent 1.5 billion dollars on IRAD, which is called internal R&D. Their own at risk funding of research and developmen…”
Grimm predicts many newly funded defense tech startups will implode
“Ultimately, I'm a little nervous about a lot of these companies kind of getting over their skis and then getting one or two fundraisers under them and then realizing it's a lot harder than it looks on paper and ultimately struggling and probably, probably impl…”
Grimm: TSMC's Arizona plant yields are slightly outperforming its Taiwan factories
“We're already seeing the early results at the TSMC plant in Arizona that has some pretty good yields that are Slightly outperforming the yields of their Taiwan factories.”
Grimm: Pentagon and UK MOD vision documents remain consistent across administrations
“There's like a slight misunderstanding that like, oh, the entirety of the Pentagon turns over every four years. It's just fundamentally not true. Same here in, in, in MOD Manon Whitehall. It doesn't turn over with every administration end to end. So I think th…”
Grimm: Northrop Grumman stock returned over 20% annually for 15 years
“Northrop Grumman over the last 15 years has had a total compounded annual shareholder return of just over 20%. Lockheed and Boeing are just behind them at about 15%. The S&P 500 over the exact same time period has an 11.6% total compounded annual return.”
Grimm: Defense primes are abandoning firm-fixed-price contracts
“And in fact, a few of them have come out in their recent annual reports and quarterly calls and whatnot and said that they're walking away from cost plus, or from firm fixed contracts. They won't do firm fixed contracts anymore. It's too risky for them.”
Grimm: Iranian Shahed attack drones cost approximately $50,000 to manufacture
“This Iranian Shahid missile it's one of the missiles they mostly use goes pretty slow. It's just a drone. They can make it for in the neighborhood of fifty-ish thousand dollars.”
Grimm: Anduril will succeed regardless of whether Trump or Harris wins
“I think I think we were going to succeed under either, like we've succeeded under President Biden, we succeeded under President Trump before that, so I don't think I don't think there's a massive difference to Andrew.”
Defense procurement takes 15 to 20 years from requirements to full deployment
“So it can be upwards of 15, 20 years to go from first requirements document to full fielding of a system.”
Grimm: Anduril has raised $4B in equity and $5B total including debt
“Short of debt, it would be about four billion. With debt, it'd be about five billion.”
Grimm: Women Account for 18% to 20% of Anduril's Workforce
“We're about, I think, like, 18%, 20%, something like that.”
Matt Grimm: Robot-on-Robot Warfare Is Likely in Future Conflicts
“Robot on robot warfare, I think is pretty likely.”
Matt Grimm: Anduril will go public and likely be his final company
“I think probably. I mean, we're all in this for the long haul. I think probably. We're gonna ring the bell one day, and then we're, you know, gonna build a massively successful publicly traded company, and like, yeah, it's probably my last.”
Grimm: Western allies will spend nearly $1.3T on defense in 2024
“In 2024 alone, US is spending about eight hundred and eighty billion on defense. The UK spending about seventy three billion more. The EU member countries are spending almost three hundred billion on top of that. Australia spending forty five billion on top of…”
Matt Grimm: I will listen to this interview four times to critique myself
“I guarantee at the end of this, I'm going to listen to this interview no less than four times making notes of different tacks I could have taken or different points I should have made or different arguments I could have gone down.”