The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

5statements match

5resolved → 0open claims → 5supported → 0contradicted →

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up

VC fundraising will be harder from 2020 to 2025

“I suspect it's going to be harder to raise funds for the next five years than it was for the last five.”

Mark Suster Apr 20, 2020 ▶ 17:50 20VC: Upfront's Mark Suster on COVID Redefining What A Great Company Looks Like and What Valuations Look Like, Why Pay-To-Play Is Back On The Table & Why We Will See The Death of Party Rounds

Assertion Supported

Suster: Generative AI seed deals carry a 44% valuation premium

“If you want to do generative AI in 20, 23, 24, you're paying 44% premium to do a generative AI deal.”

Mark Suster May 1, 2024 ▶ 34:36 Mark Suster: Why Private Equity Will Replace IPOs and M&A as the Exit Path | E1147 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Assertion Supported

Suster: Institutional LPs re-commit to future funds far more than friends and family

“Institutional money is way more likely to be in fund two and fund three and fund four. Whereas friends and family money's not as likely to repeat.”

Mark Suster May 1, 2024 ▶ 20:08 Mark Suster: Why Private Equity Will Replace IPOs and M&A as the Exit Path | E1147 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Assertion Supported

Software revenue multiples hit 24.6x in late 2021 versus 9.6x average

“Public stock markets in November of 2021 software was trading at 24.6 times NTM next 12 month revenue, 24.6. If you look at the ten-year average, the ten-year average public market, 9.6. The twenty-year average, 6.2.”

Mark Suster May 1, 2024 ▶ 23:35 Mark Suster: Why Private Equity Will Replace IPOs and M&A as the Exit Path | E1147 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Assertion Supported

Suster: Only 343 public US software and internet companies are worth $1B+

“So if I take all of software and all internet companies, there are 343. That's it. That's the whole universe. That includes Facebook, Google, that includes Amazon, all of them, 343.”

Mark Suster May 1, 2024 ▶ 29:09 Mark Suster: Why Private Equity Will Replace IPOs and M&A as the Exit Path | E1147 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

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