The Ledger
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Mark Suster: 2021 tech overvaluations were worse than dot-com bubble
“1998, 99, 2000 are nothing compared to the overvaluations of twenty-twenty-one.”
VC fundraising will be harder from 2020 to 2025
“I suspect it's going to be harder to raise funds for the next five years than it was for the last five.”
Pay-to-play provisions have returned to venture capital deal structures
“It doesn't come back. It is back. It's back. Pay to play is on the table.”
Suster predicts lead VC ownership targets will rise above 20%
“Yes. In fact, I think it'll go up from 20%, not down.”
Suster: Generative AI seed deals carry a 44% valuation premium
“If you want to do generative AI in 20, 23, 24, you're paying 44% premium to do a generative AI deal.”
Suster: Series B generative AI deals command a 200% valuation premium
“At the B round, it's like 200% premium to an enterprise software company.”
Sustained unemployment will cause widespread spending declines outside grocery and pharma
“If seventeen million people are out of work for six months or more, Spending is going to go down everywhere across almost every category, maybe other than grocery and pharma.”
Ad spend saw a 40% quarter-over-quarter drop in Q2 2020
“40% decline right now in quarter over quarter for second quarter. And we're already seeing it in the data of people starting to cancel marketing orders that we know are being canceled.”
Suster: Institutional LPs re-commit to future funds far more than friends and family
“Institutional money is way more likely to be in fund two and fund three and fund four. Whereas friends and family money's not as likely to repeat.”
Software revenue multiples hit 24.6x in late 2021 versus 9.6x average
“Public stock markets in November of 2021 software was trading at 24.6 times NTM next 12 month revenue, 24.6. If you look at the ten-year average, the ten-year average public market, 9.6. The twenty-year average, 6.2.”
Suster: Only 343 public US software and internet companies are worth $1B+
“So if I take all of software and all internet companies, there are 343. That's it. That's the whole universe. That includes Facebook, Google, that includes Amazon, all of them, 343.”
Suster: SpaceX spin-outs exceed 100 companies raising over $10B
“So there's been more than a hundred spin-outs now from SpaceX, more than a hundred. They've raised more than ten billion dollars, and the vast majority of them are in Los Angeles.”