The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

5statements match

5resolved → 0open claims → 0supported → 5contradicted →

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Contradicted

Mark Suster: 2021 tech overvaluations were worse than dot-com bubble

“1998, 99, 2000 are nothing compared to the overvaluations of twenty-twenty-one.”

Mark Suster May 1, 2024 ▶ 0:00 Mark Suster: Why Private Equity Will Replace IPOs and M&A as the Exit Path | E1147 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Prediction Didn’t hold up

Suster predicts lead VC ownership targets will rise above 20%

“Yes. In fact, I think it'll go up from 20%, not down.”

Mark Suster Apr 20, 2020 ▶ 36:17 20VC: Upfront's Mark Suster on COVID Redefining What A Great Company Looks Like and What Valuations Look Like, Why Pay-To-Play Is Back On The Table & Why We Will See The Death of Party Rounds

Assertion Contradicted

Suster: Series B generative AI deals command a 200% valuation premium

“At the B round, it's like 200% premium to an enterprise software company.”

Mark Suster May 1, 2024 ▶ 34:48 Mark Suster: Why Private Equity Will Replace IPOs and M&A as the Exit Path | E1147 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Prediction Didn’t hold up

Sustained unemployment will cause widespread spending declines outside grocery and pharma

“If seventeen million people are out of work for six months or more, Spending is going to go down everywhere across almost every category, maybe other than grocery and pharma.”

Mark Suster Apr 20, 2020 ▶ 13:02 20VC: Upfront's Mark Suster on COVID Redefining What A Great Company Looks Like and What Valuations Look Like, Why Pay-To-Play Is Back On The Table & Why We Will See The Death of Party Rounds

Assertion Contradicted

Ad spend saw a 40% quarter-over-quarter drop in Q2 2020

“40% decline right now in quarter over quarter for second quarter. And we're already seeing it in the data of people starting to cancel marketing orders that we know are being canceled.”

Mark Suster Apr 20, 2020 ▶ 13:49 20VC: Upfront's Mark Suster on COVID Redefining What A Great Company Looks Like and What Valuations Look Like, Why Pay-To-Play Is Back On The Table & Why We Will See The Death of Party Rounds

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