The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 5 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hamid: OpenAI will figure out gross margins and become highly profitable
“Today it's not a great business, but, you know, I think they're smart enough to figure out how they can get to a gross margin that will allow them to be a highly profitable business over time.”
Hamid: LLM token prices will fall another 10x-20x within two years
“So, will it go down to the next two years? I don't know, but it will probably go down by 10 X or 20 X”
Hamid: Tech sector will gain $10 trillion in annual spend within decade
“So, 10 trillion of annual spend will get created for technology companies over the next decade.”
Hamid: AI revenue will justify CapEx by expanding into global labor markets
“I think the revenue will be there for, because again, we're not just tackling software, linear software, as I call it. We're tackling Like labor, and labor shortages, and things that humans can do, but it's the worst part of their job, or we don't have enough …”
Hamid: Current AI ground-floor value creation will never be repeated
“We will not see this sort of like, At the ground floor level value creation in our lifetimes ever again.”
Hamid: Airbnb Will Become a Property Manager and Housing Platform
“I think over time, Airbnb is probably going to take over, like, where people just live. Like, they will become the property manager for people who own homes, and it will become the place, like, the Craigslist for people who want to find a home.”
Hamid: AI applications will create trillions in value over next decade
“There are so many things to build on top of this infrastructure, all these frontier models that is going to create so many trillions of value over the next decade.”
Hamid: Kleiner Perkins will not expand into a massive capital accumulator
“I don't think we want that at all. I think we love where we are today. We really do, and I don't try to, I'm not BSing you. You're a long time friend, and I believe in venture, early stage venture being a beautiful asset class, especially if you can follow the…”
Hamid: Kleiner Perkins' $600M fund will strictly focus on Series A
“We want to focus on early stage, which is really truly series A and be the first partner to a great founder and then help them on that journey, which is typically a multi-year, if not a decade plus long journey.”
Hamid: AI agents will replace human customer support within 10 years
“I think we will hopefully never talk to a customer support agent ever again. Like someone you call for the airlines, like, you know, help me my flight, I need to upgrade it, or I need to change my seat, or can you cancel it because I can't go? You know, the ba…”