The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 19 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Scott: AI scaling laws have not hit a limit yet
“I can very clearly see what we're doing now and like what we're doing next. And I don't see the limit to the scaling laws. Like if you're just sort of thinking about the raw capability of the models and like how well you can condition them to reason over incre…”
Scott: Microsoft chose not to launch models more interesting than DeepSeek-R1
“We've had models more interesting than Deep Seek R-One that, like, we didn't even We chose not to even launch them.”
Scott: 95% of net new code will be AI-generated within five years
“95% is going to be AI generated. I think very little is going to be line by line is going to be human written code.”
Scott: Frontier AI models diagnose health issues better than average GPs
“It is already the case that I think the frontier models are probably better like health diagnosticians than Your average GP is”
Scott: AI's economic value will accrue to products, not infrastructure
“But most of the value has to be in the products. Like, you know, we don't build infrastructure just for the sake of infrastructure. Like we build infrastructure so people can make product.”
Scott: Claims about proprietary data's value for AI lack scientific backing
“Most of those assertions that people make are like most of the assertions that people make are just unfounded in any kind of science. Like no, no one's gotta, and like the measurements we do have show that there's a pretty big disconnect around what some peopl…”
Scott: Using AI models as factual databases is inefficient and expensive
“People who think of models as repositories of factual information, and they're treating them like the world's worst and most expensive databases. Like it's not, not super useful.”
Scott: AI will render traditional product engineering teams obsolete within ten years
“It basically means, and like, I don't think this is next year, but it's probably not going to be 10 years. This whole notion that the, That, that you have teams of people who are, who, whose job is to go anticipate a bunch of very granular user needs in some n…”
Scott: Future AI user interfaces will consist of many specialized agents
“The user interface that surfaces, those capabilities will probably be agents. And, you know, product managers, like I don't all don't believe in this, like one agent. For everything sort of theory. I think you'll have a lot of agents.”
Scott: Future AI product managers must be deep domain experts
“Your product managers are probably going to have to be domain experts, like people who sort of deeply understand something like medicine or, you know, drug discovery or early round venture investing, or, you know, like, you know, just sort of pick your thing.”
Scott: The tech industry must respect the capabilities of Chinese AI developers
“So we should really, really, really respect the capability of Chinese entrepreneurs, scientists, and engineers. They are very good. Like we shouldn't, you know, if you are underestimating it like you shouldn't”
Scott: Reasoning models require different training tokens than fact recallers
“What you want models to be able to do is to be able to reason over information. So like if you give them access to information, like how well are they able to reason over a set of information to go do something that's useful for you? And so you just need diffe…”
Scott: Software optimizations drive AI inference efficiency far more than hardware
“A little bit of that is because you get, you know, maybe like a two X benefit price performance from hardware every generation. Like if you're lucky but you get a much bigger improvement price performance wise from. All of the things that you're doing in the s…”
Scott: Search economics flow entirely to large integrated infrastructure operators
“All of the economics in search go to like somebody who's stood up a gigantic infrastructure and who's sort of running like a whole. Search business like with its own feedback loop.”
Scott: AI agent memory will improve significantly over the next year
“I think one of the things is going to happen because I know lots of people are working on it right now is memory is going to get a lot better over the next year or so, which means that as you're using an agent, like, and it remembers more and more about your p…”
Scott: AI agents will execute tasks asynchronously within the next year
“I think there's going to be more over the next year of you sort of dispatching your agent to go do something and it like goes and works while you are not paying attention to it.”
Scott: The gap between AI capability and utilization is growing larger
“Like, I think honestly right now there's a bigger gap than there was even two years ago between what the most capable frontier models can do and what they're being used for.”