The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 43 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 6 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Murdock: Baseten's Deal With Cursor Yielded Scale but Little Profit
“I think cursor was pretty smart in the base 10 contracts from last year with cursor. I don't think there was much profit in it for a base 10. They just got revenue and they got scale from it, but they didn't get a lot of earnings.”
Murdock: Continuous learning will replace frontier models rather than bolting onto them
“They're going to replace frontier models. I don't think you can bolt on continuous learning into an existing frontier model. I think they're going to try and the early stages will look like that. But I think ultimately it'll call for a new form of architecture…”
Jerry Murdock: Autonomous agents will drive shift from Nvidia GPUs to ASICs
“And my guess is this will lead to the rise of open source models more, more proficiently. And that it's going to lead to the rise of ASICS chips, because what's going to happen with ASICS is you're going to put the model on the chip. You know, ASICS is going t…”
Jerry Murdock: Legacy SaaS vendors face severe disruption within 18 months
“But if you're not making your software for autonomous agents today, you're going to be challenged in the future. Maybe it's six months, maybe a year, maybe 18 months, but you're going to be severely challenged if you still think human beings are going to buy y…”
Jerry Murdock: AI job displacement could decide the next US presidential election
“I'm here to say that that is going to be a major issue On the next presidential election, it could decide the election. It'll be one of the most important things because there's no easy answer.”
Jerry Murdock: UBI will become a ballot question within two years
“When this happens, we're going to see dramatic change, and I think politically, the minimal viable income may become a reality or at least a ballot question in two and a half years.”
Jerry Murdock: AI disruption will cause tech private equity firms to fail
“And so they'll be stories like that. I don't know about Bravo or anybody else, but they'll definitely be PE firms that end up like Forsman Little.”
Murdock: Hyperscalers Will Benefit from Market Dislocation by Buying Cheaper Assets
“If there is a dislocation, no one is better prepared to survive it than hyperscalers. I mean, all the hyperscalers have enough ongoing business and they've been very consistent. That's why they're worth what they're worth. The magnificent seven is there becaus…”
Murdock: At Least Half of Neoclouds Will Fail Within 36 Months
“I think at least half of them go away within 36 months without, and if there's an economic disruption, a lot of them go away right away.”
Murdock: Token Cost Disparity Will Drive Massive Open-Source Model Adoption
“And if you're looking at a Frontier model with double dollar digit cost per token, and you're looking at an open source model that's 10, 11 cents per token, while all tokens aren't created equal, it's still enough of a difference that there's going to be a mas…”
Murdock: Frontier models will not be cannibalized in the short term
“We're going to absolutely see this thing that, you know, Prohibits the cannibalization of frontier models, at least in the short term.”
Murdock: Enterprise firewall data security needs will drive open-source AI adoption
“And I think in part, this is what's going to drive the open source opportunity is that, yeah, you know what? We don't want that stuff. Uploaded into the cloud. We want it, you know, behind the firewall.”
Murdock predicts disruption of model routing fee markups within 3–5 months
“And so I think that you're gonna see a big disruption in that model in the next three, four, five months. Actually, not just Akinaki, but Venice, Venice IO is doing that. And there's two or three other guys that are now in the process of building exchanges tha…”
Murdock: Flipboard Turned Down ~$1B Acquisition Bids From Twitter and ByteDance
“They had two bidders going for them at the time. And that was very, very interested in them at around, I'll say within 20% of that number, and, ah, one of them was Twitter, and the other one was TikTok, the founder of ByteDance, and founder just, you know, he …”
Continuous Learning Models Will Obsolete Current AI Models Within Ten Years
“First of all, within 10 years, I believe we, and I think some people are thinking two or three years, continuous learning models will come into existence. That means that every generation of every model we have today Dies, goes away.”
Blockchain for AI Agent Payments Will Become Obvious Within Five Years
“Blockchain for agent payments. Blockchain is, is in the valley of disillusion right now. It's like, it's really in a bad spot.”
Jerry Murdock: Open-source communities will drive the biggest impact in AI
“And those open source communities that are popping up in massive amounts, they're the ones that are going to have the big impact.”
Jerry Murdock: Meta rejected Nvidia GPUs to bet on custom ASIC chips
“I mean, look, you know, a lot of people like to criticize meta here and there about being behind the game, but they had the balls to say no to Jensen. Sorry, Jensen. We don't need you. So why did he do that? Because he's betting on a six chips. No question abo…”
Jerry Murdock: AI agents will replace humans as primary software buyers
“Software is going to be purchased or used by agents. And what's going to happen is an agent, an autonomous agent becomes an employee. You give it credentials, you give it identity, and then it's up to the agent to make the decision. You will review them like a…”
Jerry Murdock: AI agents will write software faster and cheaper than humans
“Autonomous agents, and it may take a year or longer for most enterprises to actually enable and get committed to autonomous agents, but they're going to write software faster, cheaper than any human being on the planet.”
Jerry Murdock: Single-person billion-dollar companies are realistic due to AI agents
“Yeah, absolutely. I mean, it's all about How smart is your agent? How, how, how smart are you to deploy the agents and how well are you willing to listen?”
Jerry Murdock: Now is the best time to launch a venture fund
“Absolutely. Absolutely. The best time because you're in a sea change. Humans are no longer going to be the decision makers. About software, it's going to be autonomous agents.”
Murdock: Hyperscalers Have Taken on Record Debt Levels
“All the hyperscalers have taken on much more debt than they ever have before”
Murdock: OpenAI and Anthropic Do Not Permit Frontier Model Customization
“What's happening is, is that you can't customize anthropic models or open AI models right now. Not the big frontier models. You're not allowed to do that.”
Murdock: Open-source models have never beaten frontier models on innovation
“There's never been a time yet where the open source model has trumped a frontier model on innovation yet. They might be better at specialization, but they certainly don't compete yet in sort of Complex and being able to do complex tasks.”
Murdock: There will be thousands of specialized forms of sandboxes for AI
“The truth is, there's gonna be thousands of different forms of sandboxes, and you're gonna need a company that understands how models look at tools, and what that behavior is, and be able to take that behavior and optimize for it.”
A Security Breach Will Wreck the First Vulnerable Legal AI Startup
“And the first one of those guys that, that has a security leak and security problem, and it will happen, Is going to wreck their market opportunity.”
Murdock: Apple is a massive customer of Claude Code
“You know, I know they're using Claude Code, huge, massive Claude Code customer, but how are they thinking about it?”
Jerry Murdock: AI startups are using autonomous agents to write code
“So if I look at real true AI startups like E to B or eventual or Lotus AI get dynasty. These are all native AI companies that are up and running Ovens, another great one. What's happening with them is they're all using open claw, nano claw, or one of their own…”
Jerry Murdock: Autonomous AI agents will feature dynamic LLM orchestration layers
“I think what's going to happen with the autonomous agents is ultimately they're going to have an orchestration layer where they can have multiple different LLMs, you know, that they can orchestrate on and triage workflows.”
Jerry Murdock: Salesforce won't melt overnight and will survive long-term
“Salesforce is like a Mount Everest, right? It's an 8000 meter peak sitting there. It's not going to melt overnight. That thing is going to be around for a long time.”
Jerry Murdock: Autonomous agents will perform scheduling and marketing better than humans
“There's no question that anyone that inputs data into a computer that does scheduling that, you know, like an executive assistant or people doing marketing, those jobs are probably ultimately going to be better done by autonomous agents, white collar jobs.”
Jerry Murdock: Autonomous AI agents will not possess intuition anytime soon
“And so the one thing that the autonomous agents aren't going to have is intuition. Not anytime soon.”
Jerry Murdock: Surviving five years will extend lifespan by five additional years
“If you can live another five years, you're going to extend another five years. So if you're, whatever state of health you're in today, if you make it five, five years, you're going to at least get five years in the back end.”
Jerry Murdock: Cursor will pivot strategy toward autonomous AI agents
“Now, my view is, yeah, well, but that team is really smart. They've got a lot of money and a lot of customers. They've got time to embrace autonomous agents, which is what I think they'll do. And they've got shots to pivot and figure out what the next directio…”
Jerry Murdock: Small and medium businesses will adopt autonomous agents before enterprises
“I think the first companies that are going to go with this are going to be small, medium businesses, because they're the ones that, wow, one secretary makes a huge difference in their, in, in how they, you know, two, three, four person company, how they handle…”
Jerry Murdock: Autonomous agent adoption will determine VC and startup success
“That's going to be the deciding factor for venture capitalists. And startups. We're going to be on the same level playing field. How well do we use autonomous agents in our job?”
Jerry Murdock: Twitter had 30 employees and zero revenue when Insight invested
“When I invested in Twitter in 2009 there was 30 something people, no revenue.”