why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wang: The world will ultimately have three to five AI foundation models
“So maybe there's three to five foundation models in the world. It's not going to be 10. It's not going to be 20.”
Prediction Held up
Wang: Tech IPO market will reopen in late 2024 or 2025
“I do expect the IPO markets to open, say back half of this year into next year.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wang: Magnificent Seven tech stocks will continue to thrive in AI
“At least in the initial stages of AI, where your data and distribution are so important, I think the mag seven will continue to do quite well.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jeff Wang: China's market will recover driven by founder quality
“It has to. I mean, The level of just pure entrepreneurship, the level of just the founder quality, how smart and aggressive they are. It's just remarkable. And I just don't think that goes away.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wang: Crossover Investing Market Will Improve as IPO Window Reopens
“And so I do think the crossover market is getting more attractive and it's getting more attractive. It's just one tourist exit and two as the IPO markets open up again.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wang: SCGE targets steady-state private exposure of 20% to 25%
“I think closer to 20 to 25% would be more comfortable because then that gives us an opportunity to add. I think If we are focused primarily on the public markets, let's say if we had 50% of the portfolio private, that would feel too illiquid to me. So 20 to 25…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wang: AI will rapidly cause massive disruption in call centers
“I think there is going to be massive disruption, for example, in call centers, and I don't think that's going to take a lot of time.”