why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Wang: Hedge fund crossover 'tourists' have been wiped out of private markets
“Over the last few years, there have been a lot of tourists, as you know, a lot of tourists mostly on the hedge fund side who've dabbled in private markets and they've gotten burned. Those tourists are out of the market. We don't see them anymore.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wang: AI generates $15 billion in incremental EBIT for Meta
“We estimate that it's not just delivering revenue. I think it's already delivering about fifteen billion of incremental EBIT, EBIT for Meta, right?”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wang: The world will ultimately have three to five AI foundation models
“So maybe there's three to five foundation models in the world. It's not going to be 10. It's not going to be 20.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wang: Sequoia considered shutting down its global equities fund in 2016
“And so there's this crucible moment in 2016 where Sequoia decided to part ways with the original PM and actually consider shutting down the business entirely.”
Prediction Held up
Wang: Tech IPO market will reopen in late 2024 or 2025
“I do expect the IPO markets to open, say back half of this year into next year.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wang: Magnificent Seven tech stocks will continue to thrive in AI
“At least in the initial stages of AI, where your data and distribution are so important, I think the mag seven will continue to do quite well.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jeff Wang: China's market will recover driven by founder quality
“It has to. I mean, The level of just pure entrepreneurship, the level of just the founder quality, how smart and aggressive they are. It's just remarkable. And I just don't think that goes away.”
Assertion Supported
Wang: Tech CapEx is unprecedented due to $150B Big Tech cash flow
“You have never seen this level of investment because I think if you roll back to 1999, for example, the, you didn't have this mag seven that was throwing off, you know, one hundred and fifty billion of free cash flow and you can go invest gobs and gobs of mone…”
Assertion Supported
Wang: SCGE has had only one down year in 15 years
“Now we've been in business now, 15 years. We've had one down year over that 15 year timeframe.”
Assertion Supported
Wang: Post-COVID e-commerce growth reverted to pre-pandemic trend line
“One thing that we got wrong is a lot of things return back to pre-COVID. Humans don't really change that much or they change more slowly. And so e-commerce really returned back to the pre-COVID trend line.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wang: Crossover Investing Market Will Improve as IPO Window Reopens
“And so I do think the crossover market is getting more attractive and it's getting more attractive. It's just one tourist exit and two as the IPO markets open up again.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wang: SCGE targets steady-state private exposure of 20% to 25%
“I think closer to 20 to 25% would be more comfortable because then that gives us an opportunity to add. I think If we are focused primarily on the public markets, let's say if we had 50% of the portfolio private, that would feel too illiquid to me. So 20 to 25…”
Assertion Supported
Wang: VC and PE firms launching public funds historically fail
“The history of venture PE firms launching public funds has not been a good one.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wang: AI will rapidly cause massive disruption in call centers
“I think there is going to be massive disruption, for example, in call centers, and I don't think that's going to take a lot of time.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wang: US and Canada generate two-thirds of global software revenue
“If I look at most software companies, you're probably Two thirds kind of US Canada in terms of revenue contribution and then one third everything else.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jeff Wang: Subsiding competition in India has enabled Zomato profitability
“I think one of the things that we've seen in India is that that brutal level of competition that you saw actually in the U S right. So you saw in the U S in the zero interest rate environment that has subsided in India as well. And so that's allowed companies …”
Assertion Partly supported
Wang: Canva raised enterprise plan prices by three times
“Canva, which you mentioned, has raised prices on its enterprise plan by three X.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wang: Roelof Botha memorizes every Sequoia employee's newborn child's name
“And then at events like our holiday party where he makes a speech every year, he makes it a point to remember every single person within all of Sequoia who had a baby that year and the name of their child. He memorizes it, no cards.”