The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Jordan: Amazon was the only profitable e-commerce business due to low defensibility
“Early on, I was a big proponent of that e-commerce was going to clean the clock of the department stores. I got the thesis half right. Share did shift. No one could make money other than Amazon because of there's just no defensibility, no barriers to entry.”
Jordan: TikTok Buys Users at Scale Unlike Early Google or Facebook
“That's not a categorical rule, because TikTok buys users at monstrous scale. But, you know, Google really didn't buy many users, Facebook didn't buy many users, you know, tick, tick, tick, tick.”
Jordan: Instacart lost $20-$25 per order when a16z first invested
“From recollection, they were billing something like 10 or 12 dollars per order when we invested, and they were losing 20, 25 dollars per order on each one”
Jordan: Instacart Avoids Owning Grocery Inventory to Preserve Partner Trust
“That channel conflict is something that Instacart has no desire to do. They want to be the go to partner for the for the gross, the physical grocer.”
Jordan: Amazon Was the Only Profitable Direct E-Commerce Company
“No one could make money other than Amazon because of there's just no defensibility, no barriers to entry.”
Jordan: Airbnb Was Cashflow Positive Early Due to Upfront Payments
“Airbnb raised way less money than, you know, the other leading marketplaces at the time. It's got a couple of characteristics and that are very nice. One of which is they get paid in advance. And so, you know, when you make your summer vacation over the holida…”
Jordan: Instacart Lost 75% of Early Users but Held 100% Revenue Retention
“A year out, you know, the number of users declined something like three quarters But the users that stayed spent you know, three or four times more money. So their cohorts were actually on revenue basis were, you know, close to staying at 100%.”
Jordan: OpenTable hit geographic tipping point at 10% supply capture
“It's something like 10% of the target market supply where diners finally said, okay, this is so much more convenient than calling a restaurant one at a time, getting put on hold, getting voicemail, getting all this and that. So I would, I'm going to forego the…”
Jordan: Upfront customer payments made Airbnb cash flow positive early
“Airbnb raised way less money than, you know, the other leading marketplaces at the time. It's got a couple of characteristics and that are very nice. One of which is they get paid in advance. And so, you know, when you make your summer vacation over the holida…”
Jordan: Instacart lost 75% of users yearly, but remaining users spent 3-4x
“In the case of Instacart the number of users declined pretty precipitously from, you know, first purchase to, you know, 10 purchase a year out, you know, they, the number of users declined something like three quarters. But the users that stayed spent you know…”
Jordan: Instacart reached significant profitability through process optimizations
“Each of those took, you know, many minutes off of each order, and, you know, time is money, and so, you know, that's just the example of the kind of continuous optimizations they were making, trying to get, take minutes and seconds out of the process, and in d…”
eBay's original business plan and Benchmark investment focused solely on collectibles
“Jeff Skoll wrote the business plan for eBay with Pierre. And I got a copy of it when I joined the business and they were focused entirely on the collectibles market. Now their argument was collectibles market in in the U S I think was a hundred, you know, it w…”
OpenTable Targeted 30,000 to 50,000 Single-Location Restaurants
“Open table by contrast had, you know, the target market was 30 or 40 or 50,000 restaurants Almost all of which were the, had one, the owner only managed one restaurant.”
Jordan: OpenTable Used a 'Come for the Tool' Marketplace Strategy
“Open table is pretty interesting because it was a long slog before it became an overnight success because aggregating supply did take time. It was a classic come for the tools, stay for the network. Play. And so early on in a city, when you're just selling the…”