why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
The VC adage that you never regret paying high prices is bullshit
“Some VCs say that you never regret paying a high price for getting into a good company, but I think that that is a bullshit. I think that you never regret paying a high price for an extraordinary company like Facebook, but there's only really one like that eve…”
Insight
SaaS startups with $10k to $100k annual contract values usually fail
“When you get caught in the middle, Somewhere between the 10 and a hundred K, you almost always end up on this slippery slope where your gross margins suck and you're upside down on your customer acquisition costs and the ultimate SAS model just doesn't work. A…”
Prediction Held up
Esports will draw a larger global audience than the NFL by 2022
“I do. Based on the underlying data today and how accessible it is to people, I do believe it will be larger, certainly, than the NFL.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
A robust IPO market inflates VC valuations and depresses overall returns
“There's just a good chance that With a robust public market, you'll see more dollars coming in to venture, and more dollars coming in means higher valuations at every round, and it just overall can drive returns down.”
Opinion
IPOs for tech companies with 20% growth are a healthy market sign
“There are really good companies that grow at twenty-ish percent a year, and the fact that they are able to get public actually doesn't alarm me. I actually view it as a really healthy sign that good companies that are growing at reasonable rates, but not some …”
Opinion
Early-stage VCs reacting to current public IPO markets is stupid
“What's going on in the public markets today has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on what a liquidity market's going to look like when those companies are ready to either go public or be acquired. So I think it's really stupid, but it's quite commonplace”
Opinion
Social networking innovation is not dead post-Snapchat IPO
“So I don't think social is dead. I think we'll continue to see really powerful applications of social, and we're absolutely continuing to look for them.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
VR is a next-generation platform that will blow everyone's mind
“It is an earth-shattering experience, and we're in the early innings of it. It is truly Extraordinary, life-changing, and it's a next-generation platform. Things that are going to, the amazing things that entrepreneurs are going to do in VR are going to blow e…”
Assertion Supported
Only 15 percent of software is delivered as SaaS
“Even today, only fifteen-ish percent of total software is delivered as SaaS, so we're still early in that transition”
Assertion Supported
Late-stage $50M to $200M mega-rounds dried up in 2015 and 2016
“The very late stage private market valuations and private rounds have largely gone away. So in 2013, 14, even early 15, there were very large rounds done fifty hundred, two hundred million dollars in late stage private companies. And a lot of those investors d…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Strong institutional demand will keep the tech IPO market open long-term
“There's certainly demand, and we hear from the bankers and from institutional investors that there's tremendous pent-up demand right now, so I see no reason that the market's not going to stay open for quite a while and that the demand is going to be there.”
Opinion
Zuora CEO Tien Tzuo delivered the most impressive Series A pitch
“I have to say the Series A pitch that Teen Sue, the CEO of Zawara, did. He is an amazing storyteller, and at the time, he painted a vision for the subscription economy and how Zawara was going to be the leader in that category, and he has executed against it b…”