The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Loftus: Unsolicited inbound acquisition offers for startups are extremely rare
“And so I just think that it gives this view that's like, oh, just keep your head down, build a great product. And like someday an acquirer will come knocking at your door. And I think that's a really, really rare occurrence. I just don't think things happen th…”
Loftus: Big Tech Buyer Softening Has Kept Startup Acquisition Prices Moderate
“So I haven't seen a ton of price increase, but I do think that's because in my view, even though you've seen new entrants into the market, There's been softening at the other end of the market from the Google, Facebook, Apple, Amazon end.”
Loftus: Startups should ignore Paul Graham and talk to corp dev early
“And so I would say first, I disagree with the premise that the title of the blog post gives, which is that you should never talk to corporate development. I think the second premise, which is you shouldn't do that because you should be focused on building your…”
Loftus: The M&A adage 'companies are bought, not sold' is trite
“I hate that saying, because I think it's a trite way of describing the M&A world, and I think it really ignores almost all of the nuance.”
Loftus: M&A Has Become the Absolute Primary Method of Tech Exits
“One factor that I think has moderated prices a little bit is that M&A has become the absolute primary method of exits.”
Loftus: Big tech giants are doing fewer mid-market acquisitions under $200M
“It does feel like the large tech acquirers or the big five have at least slowed down the pace, like a number of acquisitions they're doing. Obviously you have Amazon doing something giant like Whole Foods, but it feels like the deals that are sort of the bread…”
Loftus: Startups must build relationships beyond the five big tech acquirers
“Complicates the landscape if you're a founder or a VC because you're not just relying on talking to five heads of corp dev at the five big tech companies to generate a lot of your M&A interest.”
Loftus: Tech M&A Valuations Cannot Rely on Standard Profit Models
“Pricing tech companies in particular is incredibly difficult, especially I've spent most of my career in consumer internet. You're buying a lot of companies where you're looking at talent and technology are the main drivers, and so you can't sort of build a mo…”
Loftus: Acquirers usually do not realize they are crushing startups during diligence
“Nine times out of 10, the acquirer doesn't know that they're sort of crushing you unless you raise your hand.”
Loftus: Informing employees of M&A talks causes startup work to stop
“If you tell them that you're in acquisition talks and that they're serious, Work will stop.”
Loftus: Pre-term sheet Silicon Valley M&A deals have under 50% close rate
“By and large, and this isn't necessarily true for Square, but across Silicon Valley, once that term sheet is signed, that's a pretty high outcome rate. I wouldn't want to guess a percentage, but those deals usually close, but before you have a term sheet, befo…”
Loftus: Active acquirers should review M&A outcomes two to four times yearly
“I think the important thing is to have a systematic check back, especially if you're doing a significant amount of M&A to say, you know, somewhere between two and four times a year, we're all sitting down and we're going over the metrics on outcome for each de…”
Loftus: Tech M&A is driven by founder emotion unlike corporate M&A
“The M&A process in big corporate America is not an emotional exercise. Any emotion is really sort of manufactured as part of negotiation. People storm out of conference rooms and things all the time, but it's not the deal. Whereas like that's, Fundamentally di…”
Loftus: CorpDev teams aim to advocate for startups internally
“CorpDev wants to be your advocate within the company, not just for an M&A deal. Like, we spend our days talking to VCs and talking to startups, and we've self-selected for this job because we love entrepreneurs”
Google completed over 120 acquisitions in three years with four lawyers
“We did over a 120 acquisitions in just over three years, and there were only four M&A lawyers.”
Loftus: Major tech corp dev teams are perpetually overwhelmed by deal flow
“Corporate development teams across the Silicon Valley, including at Facebook and Google, are small compared to the opportunity set that they're evaluating. There's just so many companies out there all the time to evaluate, and if you're even at Square, you kno…”
Loftus: The best VCs serve as steadying forces during M&A
“I think that the best VCs, especially in the M&A process, can act both as a balancing and a calming factor for founders. It's an incredibly difficult and challenging task for a founder to sell their company, whether it's big or small. There's just a lot going …”