why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 5 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Curative Is Cutting 80% Of Its Enterprise SaaS Spend This Year
“We're cutting about 80% of our SaaS spend this year.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Fred Turner: Anthropic Could Reach A $10 Trillion Valuation
“I think it could be 10 trillion.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2029
Corporate Anthropic Spend Will Reach 2x To 5x Engineer Salaries
“Between maybe two and five X would be the two and five X salary.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2031
Curative Headcount Will Shrink In Short Term Due To AI
“We're about 650 people now. In five years we'll probably be bigger. In the short term I think we're going to be quite a bit smaller.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Curative Built An In-House Claims Platform And Will Abandon Legacy Software
“We've built our own claim system Completely from scratch, in-house. It's now, we've migrated most of the workflows off. We'll be fully off in July.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Big Insurers Will Take 10 Years To Adopt AI Due To Inertia
“I think some of the biggest insurers will struggle. They will not be able to keep up from a margin standpoint with where we can get to with agents. I think some of them do have Technical expertise. It's more operational and kind of people ops. If you've built …”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2031
AI Labs Will Not Compete In Regulated Complex Industries
“I think things that have some, like, regulation around them, and are, like, complex industries, yes, they're gonna see the advantages of the models, but they're not gonna see competition from Anthropik or OpenAI.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2031
Software Headcount Will Stay Flat As Companies Scale AI Agents
“I think that that's what the workflows will be, is people are going to be deploying more agents than engineers, and they're going to keep the same number of engineers. We're just going to build a lot more.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2036
Coal Power Generation Will Mostly Disappear Over The Next Decade
“I mean, I think any power from coal will mostly go away. I think you're still going to see a lot of gas, just because, particularly in the US, it's cheap, it works, it's fast, but I think coal is going to go away, and then you're just going to see more of ever…”