why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 5 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2024
Chen: Urban and suburban residents will stop owning private cars
“Yeah, I think that in most urban and most suburban settings, people will stop owning their cars.”
Prediction Held up
Chen: Legacy automakers will fail to transition into fleet operators
“I actually expect most of the manufacturers to not be able to make that transition, because if you think about every bonus that has ever been paid out at a car manufacturer, it's because you designed a car that people really wanted the three series.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2024
Chen: Driver-assist features will be phased out for full autonomy
“So I think from a skill atrophy point of view, and from an attention point of view, we're in this transition phase where all this driver assist Is going to get phased out in favor of complete driving.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2024
Chen: Autonomous vehicles will eliminate urban parking lots
“First, all the parking lots can go away because the cars will constantly be in motion. The fleet operators will need that to drive the efficiency and utilization out of their cars, and so if the car is not carrying you, it's carrying goods, and if it's not car…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2024
Chen: Software and electronics will reach 50% of vehicle cost
“I think you're going to see, you know, half the price of a car go to hardware and software.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2024
Chen: Car dealerships will vanish from inner cities
“Therefore, car dealerships are going to start vanishing from inner cities.”