The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Mollick: Open-source AI safety guardrails will be breached immediately
“And I do think that open models will immediately have their guardrails breached.”
Mollick: AI progress will continue as workplace integration has barely begun
“Option one is this is it like the, you know, the models don't get much better or, you know, and it's sort of this whole thing sort of fizzles out. I think this is unlikely because I think not only will models get better, but also we haven't even started integr…”
Mollick: Exponential progress in AI models will continue for a while
“I have gone back and forth on how much juice the technology has left, and now I'm back to the, it has lots of juice left, like the exponential continues for a while, and I think I was not clear on that for a long time.”
Mollick: AI automating middle management will cause a workplace meaning crisis
“What's going to happen that I'm very worried about is when you realize as a middle manager that AI does your work and nobody cares like, what does that mean for the nature of work? Like, how does that matter if people don't care? Like, if AI subs in and does s…”
Mollick: Open-Source GPT-4 Level AI Models Will Become Ubiquitous
“We now have an open source GPT four capable model and it's going to be everywhere.”
Mollick: AI tutors will enable flipped classrooms with larger class sizes
“I think in the long term we'll have flipped classrooms where that 20 per, where that giant classroom is actually fine because a lot of your learning is done outside of class with, you know, AI tutor help. And then inside of class will be activities, exercises,…”
Mollick: Nuclear power plants will be built rapidly for AI compute
“And we're going to build a lot of nuclear power plants, I guess, and, you know, in relatively short order.”
Mollick: Public underestimates upcoming closed-source AI model releases
“I think people are probably over underestimating how much ammunition the Closed source labs have and are going to release in the near future.”
Mollick: Wharton Generative AI Lab will open-source an AI tutoring system
“And by the way, we've actually built a version of this already at the General of AI Lab at Wharton. We'll be open sourcing all of that, like, that does this kind of stuff.”
Mollick: Major AI companies will inevitably enter custom chipmaking
“Yeah, I mean, the, your requirement in any supply chain pipeline is to eat the value. If you're, you know, like, that's the whole idea of, you know, how those things work. So, like, if the, if you're spending a lot of money on chips, you go into chip making. J…”