why aren't all 20 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
McCabe: COVID mRNA vaccines were harmful while traditional treatments worked
“During COVID, it turned out that these gene therapies were really bad for you, and that these traditional treatments were really, really helpful. Don't slap your face like I shouldn't have said that, because it's fucking true.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
McCabe: Very few tech industry figures are not voting for Trump
“And that's why everyone I talk to, it's very few people I talk to in technology who are not voting Trump at the moment. Very, very few. There are some people who are either triggered by Trump or they're they don't actually study a lot of these topics, but most…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2029
McCabe: Most VC AI investments will underperform the S&P 500
“Most VC money is going to support a lot of excitement around AI and actually not do better than the S&P 500.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McCabe: Global nuclear holocaust is super possible due to proxy wars
“That nuclear holocaust is super possible. Yeah, I mean, the United States and Russia have many thousands of nukes pointed at each other, ready to go, and the United States is fighting a proxy war with Russia. It's super easy for these things to tumble into nuc…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2034
McCabe: Intercom has 10 to 20 years before AI threatens its existence
“I wouldn't be working my ass off an intercom if I thought that it was about to die and be crushed by AI in a year or two. So I think we've got a decade, two decades.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
McCabe: Intercom's AI bot outresolves every competitor on the market
“We now have the highest performing AI customer service bot. You look at everything that's on the market. They can't resolve tickets at the rate we can.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
McCabe: Intercom AI resolution reaches 50%, beating Zendesk's high twenties
“When we first released our AI agent, the average resolution rate was in the high twenties to high 20%. So that's the rate at which it successfully closes tickets when it gets involved in the conversation. And now, like I said, it's approaching 50%. I think Zen…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McCabe: AI labs won't build domain-specific features over next 5-10 years
“That's why these AI application companies are going to win. That's why they're going to become so big, because I don't think at least in the next five, 10 years that any of the AI labs are going to build all the domain specific stuff.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2029
McCabe: Klarna will eventually adopt purpose-built third-party AI systems
“And I think any attempt to do so may yield some short term excitement, but even Klarna long term, I'm pretty sure we'll move on to a professional purpose built system.”
Assertion Partly supported
McCabe: Intercom banned internal political discussions years ago
“I introduced that years ago also, and we do not talk about politics and intercom, and I never do that within the company either.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McCabe promises to defend employees attacked online for political views
“And if any employees ever attacked for their political positions online, Especially and particularly if there are positions that I disagree with, it's important that I demonstrate that these principles in those moments I will defend them.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McCabe: AI will eventually eliminate all traditional software development work
“In the fullness of time, increasingly powerful and abstract AI will do away with You know, all of the work we need to do today to deliver software experiences.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
McCabe: Intercom's AI bot resolution rate is approaching 50%
“The average resolution rate of our bot is now approaching 50%.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McCabe: AI agents will be cheaper and better than human workers
“These AI agents will be way cheaper than humans while they're also better.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
McCabe: Only one Intercom employee resigned over political policies
“There was literally one person who left.”
Assertion Supported
McCabe: Intercom built a $100M business selling to SMBs
“We built a hundred million dollar business with SMB.”
Assertion Contradicted
McCabe: Intercom was first to launch an AI support agent
“You know, we built, we were the first to come out with an AI agent that would do customer support for you, like actual conversations with customers and closing tickets.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
McCabe: SF Freedom Club had 3,700 waitlisted applicants and 500 attendees
“The San Francisco Freedom Club is designed to hold only epic parties four times a year for people to love freedom and all these other values. We got 3.7 thousand people on the wait lists. We invited 600 people. 500 showed up.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
McCabe: Intercom's total customer count is growing rapidly again after shrinking
“Our total customer count started to shrink. It's now growing very rapidly again after the changes I made, but it started to shrink.”
Assertion Contradicted
McCabe: Exceptional was the first product in the error-tracking industry
“It was the first in a very unexciting industry that would be called error tracking.”