The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Emil Michael predicts Benchmark's fixed $435M fund model will fail
“That's why I think Benchmark ultimately is going to, is, has no innovation. Forget the reputation, which most entrepreneurs, if they do their deals, will find out about, but just not innovating stuck at four hundred thirty-five million for the next 10 years is…”
Emil Michael predicts Uber's Postmates and Careem acquisitions will be total write-downs
“I think we, instead of buying Kareem in the Middle East, Postmates, Jump Bike I think all of those will be a hundred percent write downs. Those are some of the worst acquisitions done in tech. Maybe Postmates may be the worst acquisition done tech in the last …”
Emil Michael: Uber's acquisition of Otto destroyed its relationship with Google
“I'd say that the deal that Was under my watch. I didn't like it at the time, but I, you know, it got done was Uber acquiring auto, which was the autonomous car division that that gets started out of Google guys. It was, and I didn't like it for different reaso…”
Emil Michael predicts tech down rounds in Q4/Q1, shutdowns in Q2/Q3
“I think we're at the end of the beginning, though, not the end of the end. The next phase is structured rounds, down rounds, like true down rounds and then sales were, unfortunately, companies sort of not making it, and I think that'll happen in Q one, you kno…”
Emil Michael: Uber's valuation under CEO Dara Khosrowshahi trails the Nasdaq
“The company's valuation Is lower today than it was when Dara took over. And even if you account for the macro environment, the Nasdaq's still up 50%, he's down 50%.”
Emil Michael: Uber grew faster than any company in history, including Google
“We grew faster than any company in the world, both geographically And revenue wise, including Google.”
Emil Michael predicts 90% of active SPACs will disband and return capital
“18 months, you're going to see dead spat. Literally, they're going to disband and give the money back to investors. Maybe 90% of them.”
Emil Michael: Uber burned $100M monthly competing against Didi in China
“And we were spending A hundred million dollars a month competing there.”
Benchmark turned a $33M Uber investment into $10B in four years
“Bill Gurley was on our board, lost her nerve. And the reality is there's another economic principle called loss aversion, right? If you invest thirty three million dollars in Uber and it looks like ten billion four years later, ten billion on a thirty three mi…”
Emil Michael: Antitrust pressure will sharply reduce mid-market tech acquisitions
“There are going to be fewer tech acquisitions in this antitrust environment. Fewer, much fewer. So your outcomes for mid, middle companies like tell me are going to be farther, you know, fewer and farther between.”
Bill Campbell coached Steve Jobs and Google founders simultaneously
“They call them the coach, the trillion dollar coach, because he would, as you know, coach Steve Jobs, who no one in the world thought was coachable, and then he would coach Larry Page and Eric Schmidt and Sergey at Google on two of the most important companies…”
Microsoft offered Tellme Networks an acquisition term sheet for $800M
“By the end of the weekend, three days later, I had a term sheet for seven hundred sixty million dollars. Plus the cash and imbalances. So just about eight hundred million dollars.”
Emil Michael: Uber China was valued at $7B in Didi acquisition
“And then tried to charm them into buying my company for a seven billion dollars.”
Emil Michael: No US consumer tech company operated in China before Uber
“Think about what consumer tech companies operate in China. Zero. There was, there's enterprise tech like Hewlett Packard and IBM and all those guys, but no one else had done that.”
Emil Michael: Uber is among few global ride-sharing firms with net debt
“It's one of the only ride sharing the companies in the world with net debt.”
Tellme Networks raised $150M across four rounds in 12 months
“We started telling me in 1999. So if you think about the timing of that, we were unbeknownst to us, 18 months from the world coming to an end from a technology investing standpoint. So we had done the things four rounds in one in 12 months. Raised a hundred an…”