The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 24 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kant: Tesla will inevitably build the most capable full self-driving AI
“And so to me, Elon has one full self-driving. I think it's inevitable that, that the most capable AI for full self-driving is coming out of Tesla because they've been gathering and building up this data set.”
Kant: The vast majority of interesting open AI research comes from China
“The research that still gets published openly, right, that doesn't get held back, that is most interesting, is all coming out of China in vast spades and majorities.”
Kant: Full AGI is far off, but specific high-value capabilities will arrive first
“At some point we are going to be in a world where across all sets of capabilities that we have as human beings, Machine intelligence is going to be as capable and if not more capable than us and surpass us. Now, our point of view is, is that that world is stil…”
Kant: Software development will be first domain where AI closes human gap
“Our view of Poolside is that the first majorly economically viable capability that is going to close the gap between human intelligence and machine intelligence is software development.”
Kant: Google relies on Broadcom for TPUs while Amazon works with fabs
“Because while Google has to work with Broadcom to be able to bring TPUs into the world, Amazon is working with the fabs directly.”
Kant: Neither OpenAI nor Poolside is allowed to train on private code
“But private code, no one's allowed to train on. Not us, not OpenAI. So all of us have access to the same public data.”
Kant: Interconnecting over 32,000 GPUs is currently extremely challenging
“Today, interconnecting more than 32,000 GPUs is extremely challenging.”
Kant: $100B is merely the starting price to become an AI hyperscaler
“If you want to become a hyperscaler that is able to put data centers all over the world with GPUs in it that is, that are going to allow you to serve these models to everyone, an infrastructure player, that's probably it. And that's probably just a starting po…”
Kant: Very few capable frontier AI startups remain available for acquisition
“I think there's very few left to be acquired, to be very honest.”
Kant: Poolside, OpenAI, and Anthropic will rival Big Tech in AI
“What I would like to see and what I think is going to happen is that it's not just Google, Amazon, and Microsoft. It's going to be, you know, an open eye, an anthropic, a poolside, and a set of companies who are able to get that massive escape velocity needed …”
Kant: Internet has 3T usable code tokens vs 15T English text tokens
“Usable code for training is what we refer to as about three trillion tokens. And if you look at kind of usable language in English on the internet for training, we're talking about anywhere between 10 and 15 trillion tokens. There's a massive amount of code th…”
Kant: Poolside runs world's largest code AI training environment with 130,000 codebases
“We put it in an environment, say it's an environment with a 130,000 real world code bases, several orders of magnitude, the largest environment in the world.”
Kant: xAI built a 100,000 GPU cluster in Tennessee in mere months
“They built a 100,000 GPU, three, 32 K interconnected clusters in Tennessee in the span of months, and XAI showed up with Elon's strength, the ability to build physical infrastructure incredibly fast in the world.”
Eiso Kant: Global AI regulation will focus on end-user applications
“The world is finding a balance and the balance that I'd like to see that the world is, and I think it's moving towards it, is to regulate the end user application of AI.”
Eiso Kant: Current AI era sets foundational table like mobile and internet
“We're going to look back on this moment 10 years from now, just like we would look back to the moment of mobile, internet, and realize that that was the moment where the table got set.”
Kant: AI hardware and algorithmic optimizations have decades of gains left
“And we've got probably decades, if not, you know, hundreds of years of improvements still left there and different forms of it over time.”
Kant: AI infrastructure build-out is largest since cloud boom
“I think this is the, one of the largest build outs that we've seen in physical infrastructure since, you know, the last couple of decades in, in the cloud.”
Kant: Data Centers Built in Two Years Will Look Radically Different
“The data centers from, you know, two years ago versus the data centers in terms of size and power requirement that we're going to see in the next two years look radically different, not just because the scale of number of servers and nodes that we're interconn…”
Eiso Kant: NVIDIA, Google, and Amazon Lead AI Hardware Volume
“The reason I mentioned those three specifically is that they are all building extremely large volume of chips. And constantly iterating on faster and better and better generations of chips for training and for inference. They're, for me, the three primary play…”
Nvidia GPUs yield 2x AI training performance gain every two years
“Pretty much what we've seen consistently with every two-year generation of training from NVIDIA is about a two X, one and a half to two X, you know, performance increase. But training is about two X every two years.”
Kant: Software development will stay developer-led while becoming increasingly AI-assisted
“AI for software developers. I don't think anyone in the world anymore questions that software development moving forward is going to be a, for the foreseeable future, a developer-led, AI-assisted world, an increasingly AI-assisted world.”
Kant: AI image generation is seeing steady commoditization
“While there's still a bit of a gap, I think image generation is one already where we're seeing more and more commoditization over time.”