The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 88 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 4 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Sim: 2024 IPOs require cashflow breakeven, 30% growth, and Rule of 40
“If you're gonna go public, I think you've gotta be cashflow breakeven. I think you have to have, you know, 30% plus growth, which is probably what high growth is right now. You've gotta be moving towards a rule of 40 or 50 with slanted more towards growth than…”
Sim: 2024 is the year zero-interest-rate startups face severe market fallout
“This is the year that the shit's hitting the fan because, you know, you can only extend runway so much and it doesn't mean much if you're not growing.”
Sim: There is a massive valuation bubble in inception-stage startup rounds
“I think there's a massive bubble with what I call inception stage.”
Sim: Meta's acquisition of Kustomer would not be approved by regulators today
“Fuck no. No way. And by the way, it had nothing to do with anything other than they hated Zuckerberg, right?”
Sim: 25% of tech company revenue previously came from selling to startups
“Probably 25% of all this revenue from all these tech companies was selling to other startups. That shit vaporized, dude.”
Sim: The 2024 venture capital vintage will produce incredible returns in five years
“But the firms that are making capital calls in 20, 24, putting dollars to work. I think this is going to be an amazing vintage because people are valuation adjusted. I think founders have the religion of the ones starting from now. And I think this is going to…”
Sim: Great opportunities persist for investing in Israeli security and infrastructure startups
“I think that as people back away from Israel, cause they fearful of kind of what's happening there, I'm still seeing amazing teams there. And I think there'll be great opportunities to keep putting dollars to work in security and infrastructure deals in Israel…”
Ed Sim: Billion-dollar multi-stage VC funds stopped growth investing in 2022
“The spigot dried out last year, all the big multi-stage firms with a billion dollar plus funds stopped investing in growth.”
Sim: Boldstart pushes down seed round sizes to test founders
“I'll lead you around now if you want three, but not at six. So they come back to us, you know, a few days later and like, you know what? How about four? And the reason I do that Harry is because I want to test them. I want to test them to make sure that they a…”
Sim: Optimal Modern Seed Venture Funds Must Be $150M to $250M
“I think a fund size between one 52 50 for doing this in a highly concentrated position with ownership and doing it in a way that allows you to write bigger checks after the discovery round to help a classic round, you know, raise a little more of an extension …”
Sim: Seed and pre-seed investors take less risk over time
“And then the pre-seed category was created because seed, seed investors weren't taking as much risk. And now the pre-seed investors aren't taking as much risk, which is why I'm saying let's do inception investing.”
Sim: Boldstart will never fund AI startups spending mostly on Nvidia
“You will never find both start, for example, finding companies where, you know, they're raising 20 or thirty million dollars, and two thirds of that money goes to NVIDIA.”
Ed Sim: AI is transformational but making money will be extremely hard
“I think this whole AI thing, frankly, I think AI is the most transformational thing that we've, that we're ever going to see in a long time. However, I still think it's really fucking hard to make money there.”
Ed Sim: Boldstart will not fund AI seed rounds at $100M post-money
“Chasing anything with a dot AI in their domain or an AI thing, I think is insane. However, I do think there's some opportunities there, but I'm not going to be funding these things at a hundred posts.”
Ed Sim: AI hype mirrors dot-com bubble and $100M seed portfolios will fail
“I just think that this is just like I saw in the internet bubble. Everything had a .com on it back in it, because I saw that. I lived through that shit. And we're gonna see the same thing. There are gonna be some massive companies built, no doubt, but it's not…”
Ed Sim: Growth funds returning 1x on peak deals will outperform peers
“So I guess what I'm trying to say is I think those growth kind of funds that put the money at the peak I think the ones that deliver one X or slightly above will probably do very well. We'll be above, you know, cause there'll be a lot of ones that are underwat…”
Ed Sim: Venture money chasing LLMs will be vaporized
“Let's just say the money chasing all these LLMs, there'll be a lot of money vaporized for sure.”
Ed Sim: $30M to $50M inception rounds are bonkers and irrational
“I mean, as I said, I'm looking at the inception rounds, right? I laid out a framework from zero to zero to six, zero to eight, zero to 10. But you know, you're getting 30, 40, fifty million dollar, you know, inception rounds done. And I think it's just bonkers…”
Ed Sim: High-growth tech companies will never see 35x-40x multiples again
“So do I think we're going to move back to one of 35 to 40 for companies greater, going greater than 40%? Never again.”
Sim: The era of late-stage tech startups growing 100% YoY is over
“The years of companies at the later stages going 100% year over year are over.”
Sim: Seed valuations were the only startup stage to increase since 2021
“There's data from Carta that shows you that if you look at priced rounds from Q one of 20, 21 compared to, let's say Q four of last year, the only round that increased in valuation Was the seed round”
Sim: Loom sold for under $1B after a $1.5B peak 2021 valuation
“At the end of last year, I'm not in the room with Loom, but that last round valuation was at 1.5 billion dollars, right? That was led in 20, 21, and they sold for nine 99 or something, nine 50, right?”
Sim: Palo Alto Networks paid $200M to $400M for startups with $2M ARR
“Look at all the stuff that Palo Alto bought. A lot of those companies had two to three million dollars of AR getting sold for two, three, four hundred million dollars, right?”
Sim: Docker is positioned to go public in the next three years
“Docker is, is, is from what you see out there is a company that can go public the next two years, two to three years.”
Sim: Apple edge AI developments will not generate meaningful revenue in 2024
“My short would probably be, I mean, just what everyone's looking at now is just Apple right now. I think Apple, You know, you've got an iPhone growth issue over there at Apple, but the one thing that gets me excited about Apple is the idea of machine learning …”
Sim: Boldstart's fastest-growing 2021 vintage startups are Israeli infrastructure companies
“We have over a dozen Israeli founding teams right now, and two of my fastest growing companies in fund five vintage 20, 21, which had, you know, funded inception to now from zero to about two million of ARR were both Israeli infrastructure companies.”
Ed Sim: Incubating companies is unscalable unless it is a firm's sole focus
“And by the way, this is not incubating a company. That's not a scalable model. And that's, unless that's all you do.”
Sim: Superhuman founder locked $10M Series A in separate bank account untouched
“Then he raised pre raised a ten million dollar A round. He put it in a separate bank account and said, I'm not going to touch this thing. I'm literally just going to put it there. I don't want to see it. It's in a separate bank account. I'm only going to opera…”
Sim: Snyk Would Have Failed Without Continuous Internal Funding Prior to Series A
“If Guy went out trying to raise capital from someone else and I didn't have enough capital to give to him, he would have gone out of business.”
Ed Sim: Enterprise IT spending is re-accelerating
“Enterprise IT spending is re-fucking accelerating right now.”
Ed Sim: Pre-seed startups raising $500K-$1M don't need a board
“If you're raising 500 K to a million, that's what I think of pre-seed, then yeah, you probably don't need a board. Yeah. Yeah. You don't need a fucking board.”
Ed Sim: Startups raising $3M-$4M should avoid SAFE notes for priced rounds
“If you're doing a classic round of you're raising three to four million, I like to tell the founder that, hey, you should probably not do a series of safe notes here because you never really know what you own, especially in conversion. You want to actually do …”
Ed Sim: Tech M&A volume will increase as investors seek liquidity
“I think we're going to see a lot more M and A's kind of coming ahead right now.”
Enterprise software markets repeat and rebuild identical tools every 10-15 years
“So that's what happens in enterprise. It's the same shit getting rebuilt every 10 or 15 years in a different way with a different pitch.”
Sim: Snyk took nearly three years to reach $1M in ARR
“It took him two and a half years to kind of get out there and get his first, you know, two and a half to three to get his first million of ARR.”
Ed Sim: Tech IPO window won't reopen until Fed cuts interest rates
“I think it's very simple. Mr. Jerome Powell signaling to the world that interest rates are under control now. And the air has been taken out of the balloon and the interest rates have to go down.”
BoldStart Ventures refuses to invest in single-founder startups
“Well, I, we never liked single co-founder, co-founded companies or single founders, number one.”
BoldStart Ventures requires founders to be engineers actively building product
“And secondly, they have to be engineers. Engineers, Building product. That's really important.”
Seed startups relying on analyst reports for market sizing are uninvestable
“If you have an analyst report to kind of show us, then it's probably not worth investing in, you know, at the seed stage.”
Developers increasingly drive enterprise software purchasing decisions bottom-up
“I think developers are increasingly wielding more and more power in the enterprise these days, and it's one of those things where they're, you know, coding or develop, or using a new technology, they'll download it, or they'll try a free version, then they'll …”
New York seed valuations are consistently lower than Silicon Valley
“I think that the New York valuations tend to be a little lower than the Valley.”
AI will infiltrate every enterprise software category within five years
“I think I'm seeing a lot of kind of AI, not AI platforms, but AI being infiltrated across every segment of enterprise software. And I'm also seeing a lot of stuff where messaging is going from consumers to the enterprise as well. Messaging meaning you know, al…”
Sim: Third-time founders raise $10M at inception versus $1M for first-timers
“A third time founder is going to raise ten million dollars out of the gate and they may very well deserve it. Whereas a first time founder may get one.”
Sim: Having 36 months of cash runway does not mean you have a business
“Just because you have 24 or 36 months of cash doesn't mean you have a business.”
Sim: Early VCs need valuation discipline to succeed on $300M to $500M exits
“Cause if early guys will do well, as long as they're not paying 50 to 75 Brie for some of these inception rounds, you know, if they exit a three to 500, but you need more of those to return a fund. So it changes the dynamics of everything where ownership matte…”
Sim: Two-thirds of startup bridge rounds yield positive outcomes
“I'd say probably two thirds work out more positively than negatively, but the ones that work out can be outliers.”