why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Pakman: Jay-Z's Tidal is doomed to ultimate failure
“So, I think Tidal's notion of exclusive content was somewhat doomed from the beginning, and I think the numbers show the product has failed. The social receptivity was really negative. And I think it will it will ultimately completely fail.”
Prediction Held up
Pakman: Apple Music will reach only 30-50M paid subscribers in 2 years
“I think there'll be a sustainable long-term digital music streaming service, but I don't think they'll get much more than, you know, I'm thinking sort of 30 to fifty million paying subscribers over the next two years, so I think my prediction is that they'll f…”
Assertion Supported
Over a dozen VCs declined to lead Dollar Shave Club's Series B
“Michael pitched, I don't know, probably at least a dozen firms in the series B where there was some investor interest, but no one who would catalyze around no one who would lead around.”
Prediction Held up
Automobiles will increasingly be sold direct-to-consumer, following Tesla's model
“We think cars will be sold direct to consumer the way Tesla is doing it.”
Assertion Supported
Dollar Shave Club generated $7M in revenue in its first year
“You know, they did about seven million in revenue in their first year, and they were on track to do twenty million in their second year.”
Assertion Supported
Dollar Shave Club revenue tripled from $20M to $60M in year three
“So we went from twenty million in year two to sixty million in revenue in year three.”
Prediction Held up
Legacy CPG firms will acquire DTC startups to gain e-commerce expertise
“So I think there is pressure now on all of the large consumer products companies to become DTC, and you can either buy or build, or both. And so, yes, I think we will see more transactions as a way to import knowledge and get, get ahead in this important categ…”
Assertion Partly supported
Dollar Shave Club achieves higher margins by selling proprietary products
“They have High margins compared to e-commerce companies that sell someone else's product, because they sell their own products.”