why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Pakman: Jay-Z's Tidal is doomed to ultimate failure
“So, I think Tidal's notion of exclusive content was somewhat doomed from the beginning, and I think the numbers show the product has failed. The social receptivity was really negative. And I think it will it will ultimately completely fail.”
Prediction Held up
Pakman: Apple Music will reach only 30-50M paid subscribers in 2 years
“I think there'll be a sustainable long-term digital music streaming service, but I don't think they'll get much more than, you know, I'm thinking sort of 30 to fifty million paying subscribers over the next two years, so I think my prediction is that they'll f…”
Prediction Held up
Automobiles will increasingly be sold direct-to-consumer, following Tesla's model
“We think cars will be sold direct to consumer the way Tesla is doing it.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Venture Capital Will Be Disrupted and Practiced Differently in Five Years
“Venture will be disrupted. It's being disrupted today. It's being practiced actually today differently than it was 15 or 20 years ago, and it'll probably be practiced five or seven years from now differently than it is today. So I do believe that venture is no…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pakman: Direct-to-Consumer Is the Only Retail Model That Will Work
“I'm confident that the only model that will really work in the future, or the model that will work best in the future, are brands that have direct relationship with customers.”
Prediction Held up
Legacy CPG firms will acquire DTC startups to gain e-commerce expertise
“So I think there is pressure now on all of the large consumer products companies to become DTC, and you can either buy or build, or both. And so, yes, I think we will see more transactions as a way to import knowledge and get, get ahead in this important categ…”