The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Pakman: Jay-Z's Tidal is doomed to ultimate failure
“So, I think Tidal's notion of exclusive content was somewhat doomed from the beginning, and I think the numbers show the product has failed. The social receptivity was really negative. And I think it will it will ultimately completely fail.”
Pakman: Apple Music will reach only 30-50M paid subscribers in 2 years
“I think there'll be a sustainable long-term digital music streaming service, but I don't think they'll get much more than, you know, I'm thinking sort of 30 to fifty million paying subscribers over the next two years, so I think my prediction is that they'll f…”
Multiple Dollar Shave Club seed investors passed on the Series A
“A number of the firms Who were already seed investors either did not engage with the company around its series egg or took a look and passed. It wasn't terribly competitive around for me to win.”
Over a dozen VCs declined to lead Dollar Shave Club's Series B
“Michael pitched, I don't know, probably at least a dozen firms in the series B where there was some investor interest, but no one who would catalyze around no one who would lead around.”
Legacy CPG brands lack direct-to-consumer capabilities
“Almost all of these hundred-year-old companies do not have any capability to sell direct, and when they try, they aren't very successful. Look at Gillette and their incredibly originally named Gillette Shave Club. You know, not very successful.”
Automobiles will increasingly be sold direct-to-consumer, following Tesla's model
“We think cars will be sold direct to consumer the way Tesla is doing it.”
Venture Capital Will Be Disrupted and Practiced Differently in Five Years
“Venture will be disrupted. It's being disrupted today. It's being practiced actually today differently than it was 15 or 20 years ago, and it'll probably be practiced five or seven years from now differently than it is today. So I do believe that venture is no…”
Pakman: Direct-to-Consumer Is the Only Retail Model That Will Work
“I'm confident that the only model that will really work in the future, or the model that will work best in the future, are brands that have direct relationship with customers.”
Dollar Shave Club showed extraordinarily low early cohort churn
“I flew to LA quickly and sat down with Michael and his team and started to go through the numbers. And I was very specifically focused on, let me see churn. Let me look, let me see what the early cohort churns are. And they were extraordinarily low.”
Dollar Shave Club generated $7M in revenue in its first year
“You know, they did about seven million in revenue in their first year, and they were on track to do twenty million in their second year.”
Dollar Shave Club revenue tripled from $20M to $60M in year three
“So we went from twenty million in year two to sixty million in revenue in year three.”
Legacy CPG firms will acquire DTC startups to gain e-commerce expertise
“So I think there is pressure now on all of the large consumer products companies to become DTC, and you can either buy or build, or both. And so, yes, I think we will see more transactions as a way to import knowledge and get, get ahead in this important categ…”