The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Sertoglu: VCs sell time, attention, and portfolio capacity, not cash
“I think our, what we sell is not our cash. The cash is available. It's I mean, the seed and a rounds are flush with New capital coming in all the time. So I think what we sell is our time and attention and capacity, and we're selling one of those 20 slots in t…”
Sertoglu: Early-stage VCs lose their edge once a startup goes public
“Once the stock is public, we felt that we have lost our entire edge in trying to Manage that investment. And I think as early stage investors, our job is to then leave that decision to our LPs.”
Sertoglu: Downside protection terms like liquidation preferences are overrated
“I think it's overrated. You know, as I mentioned before, our deals, our investments, are not real investments the way you go by Apple shares on the stock market. They are long-term contracts around a vision, and ultimately it doesn't really move the needle tha…”
Sertoglu: A VC Fund's Vintage Is the Single Biggest Predictor of Performance
“I think a very humbling fact is the biggest predictor of a fund's performance is its vintage.”
Sertoglu: Headcount is the easiest metric for startup founders to inflate
“First of all, ours is a, is an industry that fetishizes growth. And as you know, the easiest metric to grow for a founder is headcount.”
Sertoglu: Seed and Series A Rounds Are Alignment Contracts, Not Investments
“The early rounds are not real rounds. There are contracts where you're demonstrating alignment around, around a target that is very far out ahead. I mean, every early stage check, you're buying a very out of the money call option on these businesses. So it's n…”
Sertoglu: VC reserves exist for overlooked companies that defy standard molds
“And that's what we, that's what our reserves are for. Our reserves are for those companies that will be misunderstood by the market or overlooked by the market because they don't fit into the mold.”
Sertoglu: Sign funding rounds if success probability increases beyond dilution
“For the founder, I think the most important thing is probability of success. You know, Is this round that I'm closing? Is this gonna impact my potential of getting where I want to get to? As a percentage, will it make up for the dilution I'm suffering? So if I…”
Sertoglu: Prematurely assuming product-market fit is the biggest scaling impediment
“I think the biggest impediment to that scale for some companies is assuming product market fit prematurely and being tempted into going into hyperscale mode prematurely.”
Sertoglu: Founders underestimate cap table leverage and overnegotiate terms
“Founders usually underestimate the leverage they have on their cap table. They negotiate things for very obscure situations, etc. I think experienced founders know that it's their company, and they will have a lot of flexibility around managing things when it …”