why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tolkin: AI will collapse product cycles by skipping documentation for prototyping
“And I think AI completely collapses that cycle and accelerates a lot of the upfront up funnel work where, where again, you can just do, you can build a prototype and you can show that to customers and like the PM and the designer might just work collaborativel…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tolkin: Top 5% of tech talent gains value in the AI era
“The top one percent, the top five percent of all of the skill sets get a lot more valuable and the median gets a lot less valuable.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tolkin: AI will cause engineering, product, and design roles to converge
“And I think we will see that we'll see a collapsing or converging of the end product design triad. I think they will never be the same, but I think everything will be pulled in tighter. So I think all of that will change.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tolkin: Western and Asian mobile app design styles are converging
“I think there's absolutely a convergence. I think probably the influence is a little bit more being pulled towards us, but the reality is like apps like, you know, TikTok, there's a lot of things going on, things flying around, scrolling, all that stuff. Like …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tolkin: More PMs will start development in prototyping than design tools
“I think maybe, maybe the generalized version of that is do more PM start in prototyping land than they do in strictly design land? And I think the answer to that is yes.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tolkin: Breaking organizational silos with AI will be harder than expected
“I think the breaking down of silos, the use of AI tools to break down the silos between the functions will be more challenging than a lot of people are giving it credit to.”