The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Clarkson: Absolute TVPI-to-DPI gap is likely largest since dot-com crash
“The only other time that would be equivalent would be about 99 and 2000, and I don't know if there is the volume of funds in the market then, so, and absolute numbers, he's probably right.”
Beezer Clarkson Oct 18, 2023 ▶ 33:00 Beezer Clarkson: Are LPs Open for Business & Why Do LP Incentive Mechanisms Need to Change? | E1073 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Clarkson: Extended market downturn will force institutional LPs to sell holdings
“I think we're seeing some, the tip of the iceberg. And if the market doesn't come back, there could be a lot more. And that is when, to your point about When endowments and foundations and other LPs have to make some really hard choices about what they keep in…”
Beezer Clarkson Oct 18, 2023 ▶ 12:46 Beezer Clarkson: Are LPs Open for Business & Why Do LP Incentive Mechanisms Need to Change? | E1073 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Clarkson: Venture Market Is at Bottom and Will Recover by 2024-2025
“I think we're bumping along the bottom. I think it should start coming up at some point. You know, I don't know if Jason's right, it's back half of 24, you're right, and it's 20, 25. At some point, it will come back up.”
Beezer Clarkson Oct 18, 2023 ▶ 58:02 Beezer Clarkson: Are LPs Open for Business & Why Do LP Incentive Mechanisms Need to Change? | E1073 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Held up
Clarkson: 2017 VC mega fund count won't match 2016 levels
“While we predict there will definitely be more coming this year, we don't think there'll be the same numbers last year by any stretch.”
Beezer Clarkson May 1, 2017 ▶ 6:48 20VC: Explosion of First Time Funds, Only 1 Mega Fund Raised: What The Heck Happened in Q1 Venture Markets with Beezer Clarkson, Managing Director @ Sapphire Ventures
Prediction Held up
Clarkson: US VC fundraising in 2017 will not match 2016's $40B total
“I have a hard time believing that we're going to raise as much money this year as we did last year, and that's a gimme, right?”
Beezer Clarkson May 1, 2017 ▶ 14:44 20VC: Explosion of First Time Funds, Only 1 Mega Fund Raised: What The Heck Happened in Q1 Venture Markets with Beezer Clarkson, Managing Director @ Sapphire Ventures
Prediction Partly held up
Startups Will Abandon Private IPOs for Traditional Public Exits
“We think that there could be more of a move away from the private IPO into companies going public and moving down that path and sort of a reversion to what it used to look like before.”
Beezer Clarkson Oct 24, 2016 ▶ 17:14 20VC: More $ Raised This Year Than The Past 15, War Chests Being Built & Decline In First Time Funds: So What The Heck Is Happening In Venture with Beezer Clarkson, Managing Director @ Sapphire Ventures
Prediction Not checkable as stated
The SaaStr Community Will Drive Significant Deal Flow for Jason Lemkin
“SASTR to me is a great example of that because the community he built, that's just really hard to replicate, and it will deliver a significant amount of deal flow to him”
Beezer Clarkson Oct 24, 2016 ▶ 26:21 20VC: More $ Raised This Year Than The Past 15, War Chests Being Built & Decline In First Time Funds: So What The Heck Is Happening In Venture with Beezer Clarkson, Managing Director @ Sapphire Ventures
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