why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Held up
Clarkson: Absolute TVPI-to-DPI gap is likely largest since dot-com crash
“The only other time that would be equivalent would be about 99 and 2000, and I don't know if there is the volume of funds in the market then, so, and absolute numbers, he's probably right.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Clarkson: Extended market downturn will force institutional LPs to sell holdings
“I think we're seeing some, the tip of the iceberg. And if the market doesn't come back, there could be a lot more. And that is when, to your point about When endowments and foundations and other LPs have to make some really hard choices about what they keep in…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Clarkson: Venture Market Is at Bottom and Will Recover by 2024-2025
“I think we're bumping along the bottom. I think it should start coming up at some point. You know, I don't know if Jason's right, it's back half of 24, you're right, and it's 20, 25. At some point, it will come back up.”
Prediction Held up
Clarkson: 2017 VC mega fund count won't match 2016 levels
“While we predict there will definitely be more coming this year, we don't think there'll be the same numbers last year by any stretch.”
Prediction Held up
Clarkson: US VC fundraising in 2017 will not match 2016's $40B total
“I have a hard time believing that we're going to raise as much money this year as we did last year, and that's a gimme, right?”
Prediction Partly held up
Startups Will Abandon Private IPOs for Traditional Public Exits
“We think that there could be more of a move away from the private IPO into companies going public and moving down that path and sort of a reversion to what it used to look like before.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
The SaaStr Community Will Drive Significant Deal Flow for Jason Lemkin
“SASTR to me is a great example of that because the community he built, that's just really hard to replicate, and it will deliver a significant amount of deal flow to him”