The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 61 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Stephens: Founders Fund Backed Flexport Based on Individual Partner Conviction
“So when I wanted to make the flex board investment, I had to kind of go through the gauntlet and answer a bunch of questions from the team and pound the table. But at the end of the day, they were like, we made a bet on Trey. Trey has high conviction in this. …”
Stephens: Investors Should Follow Heuristics Rather Than Justifying Exceptions
“And this is going back to that earlier point I was making about heuristics is that you can't constantly convince yourself that every Exception is actually an exception. Usually it's just wrong. Usually you should just follow your instincts around the heuristic…”
Stephens: Almost Left Venture Capital During 2021 Market Peak
“Like I was on the verge of just leaving venture capital.”
Stephens: Founders Fund Avoids Board Seats and Operates Purely Reactively
“We don't generally want to take board seats. We are incredibly hands-off and operationally helpful when asked, but only reactively.”
Stephens: Founders Fund Will Always Stick to Traditional Series A Strategy
“Our core vision is we just want to invest in the best founders, building the best companies that are going to be category, category defining. And I think you can do that through a very traditional venture model of, can we get a check into the series A and can …”
Stephens: Great Founders Can Pivot Their Way Into Product-Market Fit
“The founder is the atomic element, a really great founder and team are going to be able to pivot their way into strong product market fit. Whereas a great idea with a weaker founding team are going to get stuck and will likely spin out.”
Stephens: Most Common Founder Failure Mode Is Lacking a Complete Executive Team
“I would say the most common example is where you have a founder that doesn't build a, like a, Diverse enough set of skills around them with the rest of their founding team or their executive team. And they assume that their, you know, specific superpower will …”
Stephens: Defense Tech Startups Cannot Be Built by Teenagers in a Garage
“You have to have a, like a whole, a holistic view of government relations, lobbying telling, being really good at telling a narrative, Communicating to agency heads, decision makers, and your potential users in the field. And I think that this is like the type…”
Stephens: Brian Schimpf Is the Most Brilliant Software Engineer I've Worked With
“We should keep in mind that the co-founder CEO is Brian Schimpf, who is the most brilliant software engineer I've ever worked with.”
Stephens: US Government, Not Defense Startups, Decides Foreign Military Buyers
“This is probably like, not to put a, you know, a target on your back, Harry, but this is the most naive question that non-defense people ask, because the reality is that we don't decide. The US government decides.”
Stephens: Operational Startup Knowledge Decays After Three Years
“The entropy on, like, knowledge of operationally being engaged with the startup is so fast. All the things that I did at Palantir for six years, like, I feel like were relevant for, like, my first three years at Founders Fund.”
Stephens: Had No Logistics Thesis Prior to Backing Flexport
“Did I have like some super crazy interest in supply chain and logistics or a thesis in supply chain and logistics before I invested in flex work? No, of course not. Like I needed Ryan to like convince me of the timing to the market.”
Stephens: Plans to Return to Government Civil Service Within 15 Years
“I am deeply committed to the idea of civil service. And I don't know if it's in five years or 10 years or 15 years, but at some point I want to be back as a public servant working for the good of our nation and our allies and partners.”