The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Lemkin: A $100 billion startup exit will happen within a year
“The big exits will solve it, right? The whizzes and the, I mean, we thought whizz was big. Now we have cursor. Now I'm going to win the bet of a hundred billion dollar exit in the next year.”
Jason Lemkin Apr 30, 2026 ▶ 1:05:12 Anthropic Raises $45B but Falls Short on Compute & Thoma Bravo Hand Back Medallia Keys to Creditors · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Partly supported
Shah: Wiz grew faster in four years than any company ever
“Bottoms up, the, you know, the business in, in, in four years, the company has grown faster than any company of all time with unbelievable productivity in different segments, in different geographies.”
Shardul Shah Sep 16, 2024 ▶ 25:01 Shardul Shah: How Index Makes Decisions & Why Benchmarks & Averages in VC are BS | E1202 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lemkin: Wiz must IPO within 18 months after rejecting Google bid
“When the CEOs in, in, in, in the letter to the team says, we're going to go public instead, you got to do it in the next 18 months or so.”
Jason Lemkin Jul 24, 2024 ▶ 20:08 Jason Lemkin: Crowdstrike, WTF Happens From Here? Wiz Rejects Google’s $23BN Acquisition Offer|E1181 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Partly supported
Wiz Acquisition Features the Largest M&A Breakup Fee Ever
“You look at the Wiz deal, There's a 10% breakup fee there. Largest breakup fee ever for an M&A transaction.”
Miles Dieffenbach Aug 4, 2025 ▶ 1:12:53 Miles Dieffenbach: Inside Carnegie Mellon’s $4BN Endowment & The Math Behind DPI, TVPI, Illiquidity · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Partly supported
Index Ventures Is the Largest Shareholder in Figma, Dream Games, and Wiz
“Largest shareholder in Figma, largest shareholder in Dream Games, largest shareholder in Wiz you know, second largest shareholder in Scale.ai, Revolut.”
Miles Dieffenbach Aug 4, 2025 ▶ 42:45 Miles Dieffenbach: Inside Carnegie Mellon’s $4BN Endowment & The Math Behind DPI, TVPI, Illiquidity · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Partly supported
Stebbings: Insight generated $2.6B Wiz return in $8.5B fund
“It was a 2.6 billion dollar reported return to them in an eight and a half billion dollar fund, which is like one of the best investments of all time.”
Harry Stebbings Apr 17, 2025 ▶ 44:45 a16z's $20BN Fund & Founders Fund's $4.6BN & Why Josh Kushner Has Mastered the Game · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lemkin: Wiz will reach $1B ARR within 12 months
“This company will be at a billion in a blink of an eye, so let's, let's just value it at a billion. It's gonna be there in 12 months, 14 months, nine months, it's a billion forward.”
Jason Lemkin Jul 24, 2024 ▶ 1:34 Jason Lemkin: Crowdstrike, WTF Happens From Here? Wiz Rejects Google’s $23BN Acquisition Offer|E1181 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Raanan: Wiz co-founder Assaf Rappaport knew nothing about cloud security in 2012
“Now, did Asaf know anything about cloud and cloud security in 2012? I guarantee you not.”
Gili Raanan Mar 18, 2024 ▶ 29:20 Gili Raanan: One of the Best Seed Investor of All Time: 1 Decacon, 7 Unicorns, 4 Acquisitions| E1128 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Held up
Wiz Deal Approval Will Trigger a Big Tech Acquisition Spree
“I think if Wiz gets approved, I think Every other large Mac seven company is going to see a green light in regards to making big, splashy acquisitions again, which is a good thing.”
Miles Dieffenbach Aug 4, 2025 ▶ 1:11:43 Miles Dieffenbach: Inside Carnegie Mellon’s $4BN Endowment & The Math Behind DPI, TVPI, Illiquidity · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Wiz grew from $0 to $500M ARR in four years
“This is a company that has gone from nothing to five hundred million in four years, ok?”
Jason Lemkin Jul 24, 2024 ▶ 1:17 Jason Lemkin: Crowdstrike, WTF Happens From Here? Wiz Rejects Google’s $23BN Acquisition Offer|E1181 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Motamedi: Wiz Raised Series A at $500M Valuation with Zero ARR
“Wiz, when they raised their Series A at a five hundred million dollar valuation, had zero in ARR.”
Saam Motamedi Jul 15, 2024 ▶ 40:41 Saam Motamedi: Why Series B Won’t Make Money & Why $1M ARR is a BS Milestone for Series A | E1177 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Wiz was originally named Beyond Networks and focused on network security
“Wiz was actually called at the beginning Beyond Networks, and we would talk to CISO security teams, and we would kind of pitch them on this Network idea.”
Raz Herzberg Dec 12, 2025 ▶ 16:28 20Growth: How Wiz Built a $30BN Brand in Enterprise | What Worked vs What Was a Mega Failure: Lessons Learned | Why Marketers Make the Worst CMOs & What To Look for in Growth with Raaz Herzberg
Assertion Partly supported
The Wiz founding executive team has worked together for roughly 20 years
“All of them founded another company and sold that company and then worked together for six more years. They've been working together for like 20 years.”
Raz Herzberg Dec 12, 2025 ▶ 46:14 20Growth: How Wiz Built a $30BN Brand in Enterprise | What Worked vs What Was a Mega Failure: Lessons Learned | Why Marketers Make the Worst CMOs & What To Look for in Growth with Raaz Herzberg
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