why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Abrahami: Wix core platform has vastly higher margins than Base44
“Wix is way, way, way, way, way more profitable, right? The cost of a Wix, generating Wix website is pretty much zero in comparison, and hosting pretty much zero in comparison. So, way more profitable on Wix than on Base-Four, and the margins are much better.”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Wix's core paid customer base fell 1.2% last year
“Well, the challenge is their core customer base, their core paid customers declined 1.2% last year.”
Assertion Supported
Wix paid $4.8M plus network commitments for its first Super Bowl ad
“4.8 at eight max spends. When you are buying a Super Bowl commercial, you are paying for the airtime of during the Super Bowl, an addition of max spends that you need to invest during the year on the network that have the right for the Super Bowl.”
Prediction Held up
Wix targets an eight-month payback period for its marketing spend
“That means I have a goal of TRI of eight months, and my job is to bring as many, as much money Collection for the company in the TROI that we agreed on.”
Assertion Supported
Jason Lemkin: Public software multiples jump sharply above 20% and 30% growth
“If you're growing less than 20% of a cherry pick basket, 5.1 X AR, Wix is lower. It's not in my basket. 20 to 30, 11.8 X AR. And then the 30% plus, which is Rubrik, Palantir and Figma, average 23.7 X AR, but Palantir and Rubrik push that up.”
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Wix slashes 2026 guidance and cuts 20% of workforce
“Wix slashes twenty-twenty-six guidance, cutting 20% of staff, a thousand employees, And cuts outlook by fifty million and revenue by twenty five million.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Wix added $100M in AI revenue via Base 44 acquisition
“And what they'done better than most public companies is hell with a great acquisition. They got a hundred million of AI revenue on top of it.”
Prediction Held up
Wix and subsidiary Base44 will air two Super Bowl commercials in 2026
“We are going to do two Super Bowl spots this year. One is for Wix, and this is going to be the sixth one that we're doing for the amazing company that I'm part of it in the last 18 years. And in addition to that, we are going to have Super Bowl spots for base …”
Prediction Held up
Wix's upcoming Super Bowl ad will feature the product without celebrities
“And in our spot this year, the product is going to be in the central. Ok, so we are not going to have celebrity. We are not going to have a lot of hoo-ha special. We are going to have a product. And you are going to see how other people using the product. It's…”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Wix bought AI startup Base44 for $80 million
“Bought for eighty million using the same underlying technology, cloud code, right?”
Prediction Held up
O'Driscoll: Wix's acquisition of Base44 will reach $50M ARR this year
“The market would say that the Wix acquisition has worked very well and, you know, it's probably going to be fifty million in ARR by the end of the year.”
Assertion Partly supported
Stebbings: Wix is trading at 1x revenue with a $2.1B valuation
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, and when I look at, like, a Wix today, trading at 2.1 billion on 2.1 billion of revenue, it's a great example where, like, there's obviously rationality at play, but it doesn't matter.”