why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Podjarny: Platforms like GitHub and Vercel will dominate AI software development
“I think there is a pretty high chance that we're going towards this path. Ease of use of software development is already, you know, amazing, and you're seeing platforms like, ah, Vercel, for instance, you know, make it very easy to generate applications and go…”
Insight
Rauch: Application user experience matters far more than back-end implementation
“The thing that matters the most is the look and feel and the Capability of the application, the device, and then how you make that happen. I couldn't care less as an end user, right?”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rauch: Single-model software businesses will become less popular over time
“My maybe narrative violation is that businesses that only do one half of the equation Are gonna become less and less popular over time.”
Opinion
Lemkin: Vercel and Supabase are captain-obvious bets driven by developer adoption
“I think in terms of valuation aside, these are actually captain obvious bets. I think they're both captain obvious bets because this is where developers are going.”
Disclosure
Gonto: Vercel deployed Product Advocates to unblock users before sales
“So for example, one thing we did at Vercell was build a team that's called Product Advocates. That team of Product Advocates is literally people that are sort of technical that will, when somebody gets blocked in the dashboard, you'll contact them and hit them…”
Disclosure
Gonto: Vercel hired Apple Genius and bootcamp grads as Product Advocates
“For example, what we did was we hire people from Apple Genius Bar or Best Buy Tech Support or people who did like Lambda School or some CS Bootcamps.”
Insight
Rauch: Conceptual understanding helps leaders separate storytellers from real technical executors
“Like, I think being able to dive into like the absolute depth of the problem is, is something that everyone should be able to do. That doesn't mean that you have the complete texture But you have the ability to, I think really what you need is the conceptual u…”
Insight
Rauch: Great companies are defined by how many ideas they reject
“What makes a company good is how much they reject over time, how many things they say no to, how many attract, seemingly attractive on the surface ideas they rule out before they decide, yes, that's the one that goes to market.”
Insight
Rauch: Concrete past examples are essential to ship fast with high quality
“I think if you don't have those stories that you can actually give people, like, it almost sounds like, it sounds like, it sounds so contradictory, That you could move fast and ship with high quality, that if you cannot offer people those stories of like, this…”
Insight
Rauch: Vercel evaluates talent and acquisitions by tangible public creations
“How I evaluate folks that want to join the company or companies that we acquire or folks that we reach out to is that what are they putting out into the world that is tangible? What can I use? What hyperlinks have you shared with the world about your creations…”
Insight
Rauch: Writing serves as the front end to a candidate's mind
“Your writing could be that front end to your mind.”
Insight
Rauch: CEO role is setting quality standards, not inspecting every project
“I'm not the one that is like going after every single project and applying this rigorous testing. You know what I mean? I'm the one that is saying, this is the bar. These are some of the techniques. These are some of the stories.”
Disclosure
Geoff Lewis: Bedrock heavily concentrated capital in Rippling, Vercel, and Flock Safety
“So we've concentrated capital in Rippling, Vercel, and Flock Safety to an extreme degree.”
Disclosure
Lewis: Vercel is Bedrock's largest investment in dollars and valuation
“Well, of those three that you listed, Vercel is by far our largest investment in terms of dollars, and of those, just worth the other ones by a significant amount.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lewis: Vercel grew over 10x in the year following Bedrock's check
“Today, you know, they've grown over 10 X since we initially invested just over a year ago. It's seen as conventionally working and they've raised several rounds of follow on financing given it's working so much.”
Disclosure
Vercel is shifting products toward natural language, text-prompted interfaces
“With some of our products. We're basically going in that direction, right? Like what used to be dragging and dropping and like spending like hours or going into a text editor and like, Going through like all these auto completions and like errors, and now it's…”