why aren't all 19 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: TikTok US generates $15B-$16B revenue and was bought for ~1x
“I think the company's doing 15 or sixteen billion dollars in the US revenue, And they bought it for like one times revenue plus or minus.”
Assertion Contradicted
TikTok's Feed Model Was Born From Chinese Government Follower Limits
“It was a genius invention that came about of necessity because the Chinese government didn't want to have any social networks with more than 500 followers.”
Assertion Supported
Dash: TikTok's 2019 Ad Spend on Facebook and Snap Cannibalized Their Users
“The ad targeting at this point in 2019 had gotten so granular You could actually get to, like, a city level, a user demographic level, and TikTok leveraged all of that. And Facebook and Snap all benefited because they saw tons of money coming in in the form of…”
Prediction Held up
Masad: TikTok will not be banned outright without full Republican control
“Banning them outright, I don't see that happening unless there's like a full Republican government and like, you know, will of, you know, political will.”
Assertion Supported
Jordan: TikTok Buys Users at Scale Unlike Early Google or Facebook
“That's not a categorical rule, because TikTok buys users at monstrous scale. But, you know, Google really didn't buy many users, Facebook didn't buy many users, you know, tick, tick, tick, tick.”
Assertion Contradicted
Stebbings: 45% of Millennials Use TikTok Over Google for Search
“I saw an unbelievable stat, which is like, 45% of millennials use TikTok instead of Google as their primary search engine.”
Assertion Contradicted
Stebbings: 45% of millennials use TikTok over Google for search
“I saw an unbelievable stat, which is like, 45% of millennials use TikTok instead of Google as their primary search engine.”
Prediction Held up
Ian Lee: NFT-Powered Spotify and YouTube Alternatives Will Emerge by 2024
“So good example of this is that I think that like NFT powered commerce in Web three, NFT powered digital media and various kind of social media platforms. That I knew or believed were gonna happen in 10 years or so, I think are now possible in the next two to …”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lemkin: A US-China TikTok deal will be signed within 60 days
“Whatever this crazy deal is, it's going to get signed in the next 60. I think these deals are going to get done this calendar year, and I think it's going to get signed”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: ChatGPT mobile downloads rival TikTok, Meta, and X combined
“It was ChatGPT over the last 28 days, 29.5 million downloads. ChatGPT, 29.5 million. Just mobile. That's just its mobile app. TikTok, Facebook, Instagram and X, thirty two million. So ChatGPT mobile downloads just about equal to all the social media guys combi…”
Assertion Contradicted
Lemkin: ChatGPT reached 800M users in 17 months
“ChatGPT is the fastest, even though Sam Lesson said he's not sure it's important, it's the fastest Gain of users in, in the history of the world. Zero to eight hundred million in 17 months. Okay. That's, it took Netflix 15 times longer. It took TikTok five tim…”
Assertion Supported
Allebest: Short-form video completely drove Chess.com's latest growth wave
“Our most recent wave was Completely driven off of short forms, whether it's YouTube shorts, Instagram, you know stuff or reels or, you know, TikTok. It is totally driven.”
Assertion Supported
TikTok spent Dubsmash's entire $7M bank balance every week
“We were a startup that had just kind of raised seven million dollars. We had the, that was the cash in the bank. They were spending that in like a week”
Assertion Supported
Dash: ByteDance Used Chinese Revenues from Douyin to Buy US Market
“I think they did it at a scale leveraging all of the revenues that they had gotten in China already via Dao Win and To Tiao and actually leverage that to really buy out the U.S. Market.”
Assertion Supported
Hacker: Duolingo was once bigger on TikTok than Nike
“I think at some point we were bigger on TikTok than Nike.”
Assertion Supported
Schultz: TikTok Is Focusing Heavily on Messaging and Friend Graphs
“You look at TikTok and what they're doing right now. They're focusing very heavily on messaging. They're focusing very heavily on friend graph.”
Assertion Supported
Tenev: Robinhood was the top App Store app during GameStop surge
“Robinhood was the number one app in the app store. And my feeling at the time was, you know, everyone was sort of like, Wow, you should be really happy. You're the number one app in the app store ahead of Instagram and TikTok. Not just financial app, but every…”
Assertion Partly supported
Stebbings: UK TikTok news creator reached 10M followers and faced BBC attacks
“There's a TikTok star who does kind of news in the UK, and he has ten million followers now. And the BBC attacked him recently.”
Assertion Supported
Cohen: UK youth average over an hour daily on TikTok
“There was a very interesting recent large scale survey in the UK, which it said that I think young people in the UK are watching over an hour's TikTok a day now, on average, which seems astonishing for one platform.”