The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mostaque: No AI models available today will be used in a year
“The reality is no models that are out today will be used in a year.”
Emad Mostaque Nov 24, 2023 ▶ 2:56 The Ultimate AI Roundtable: What Happens Now in AI, Why Google are Vulnerable | E1085 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mostaque: Only 5 or 6 foundation model companies will exist in 3-5 years
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years. I think it's going to be us, Nvidia, Google, Microsoft OpenAI, and Meta and Apple probably are the ones that train these models.”
Emad Mostaque Nov 24, 2023 ▶ 0:55 The Ultimate AI Roundtable: What Happens Now in AI, Why Google are Vulnerable | E1085 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Partly supported
Mostaque: DataComp outperforms OpenAI CLIP at one-fourth the parameter count
“We had datacomp, which is the next generation lion that we funded the compute for, whereby at a quarter of the parameters of OpenAI's clip, it outperforms for the beta data quality.”
Emad Mostaque May 17, 2023 ▶ 26:46 Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E1015 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Partly held up
Stability AI to build language models in the open starting next week
“From next week, we're going to build our language models in the open and share what works and what doesn't work.”
Emad Mostaque May 17, 2023 ▶ 13:25 Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E1015 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Contradicted
Mostaque: Stability AI currently has 7,000 NVIDIA A100 GPUs
“You need these chips lined up with interconnect, and we've got 7000 A-one hundreds now.”
Emad Mostaque May 17, 2023 ▶ 48:04 Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E1015 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Mostaque: Stable Diffusion condenses 100,000 gigabytes into a 2GB file
“So we train the whole internet and like stable diffusion is a 100,000 gigabytes in a two gigabyte file.”
Emad Mostaque May 17, 2023 ▶ 53:50 Emad Mostaque: These 5 Companies Will Win the AI War; Why We Need National Data Sets | E1015 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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