why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2028
Mostaque: Only five or six foundation model companies will survive
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years. ... I think it's going to be us, NVIDIA Google, Microsoft OpenAI, and Meta and Apple probably are the ones that train these models.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mostaque: No AI models available today will be used in a year
“The reality is no models that are out today will be used in a year.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mostaque: Only 5 or 6 foundation model companies will exist in 3-5 years
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years. I think it's going to be us, Nvidia, Google, Microsoft OpenAI, and Meta and Apple probably are the ones that train these models.”
Opinion
Delangue: Startups training their own models build better products than wrappers
“If you look at models closer to Runway ML or Stability AI or like PhotoRoom in Paris, you see these AI native startups that are actually building, training their own models. And how they can, in my opinion, build much better things than the ones that just use …”
Assertion Partly supported
Mostaque: DataComp outperforms OpenAI CLIP at one-fourth the parameter count
“We had datacomp, which is the next generation lion that we funded the compute for, whereby at a quarter of the parameters of OpenAI's clip, it outperforms for the beta data quality.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mostaque: Stability AI sees zero failure rate training on Google TPUs
“TPUs are the most scalable architecture, like we have zero failure rate with our TPU language model training, whereas with GPUs it's like there's an ECC error”
Disclosure
Mostaque: Stability AI is the only company allowing image opt-outs from datasets
“We had hundreds of millions of images opt out of stable diffusion because we were the only company in the world To offer opt out of data sets.”
Disclosure
Mostaque: Stability AI is building models without web-scraped data
“I call them organic free-range models, the ones we're building with no web scrape data.”
Disclosure
Mostaque: Enterprises are offering Stability AI tens of millions per model
“People are offering us tens of millions per model”
Disclosure
Stability AI is collaborating with governments on national AI data frameworks
“Well, this is what we're doing right now. We're working with our multinational partners, lots more to be announced soon, and multiple governments for a framework for what good data looks like to feed these models, to stimulate innovation and localization.”
Disclosure
Mostaque: Stability AI partnered with Amazon Bedrock for enterprise distribution
“If you want to have distribution, what do we do? We went to Amazon and said Bedrock, because then it gives us a 100,000 SageMaker SMEs, and we just have to give them the models that they can then take to the private data, and we get a share of all of that.”
Prediction Partly held up
Stability AI to build language models in the open starting next week
“From next week, we're going to build our language models in the open and share what works and what doesn't work.”
Assertion Contradicted
Mostaque: Stability AI currently has 7,000 NVIDIA A100 GPUs
“You need these chips lined up with interconnect, and we've got 7000 A-one hundreds now.”
Assertion Supported
Mostaque: Stable Diffusion condenses 100,000 gigabytes into a 2GB file
“So we train the whole internet and like stable diffusion is a 100,000 gigabytes in a two gigabyte file.”