The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Lemkin: Elon Musk will force underwriters to meet SpaceX target IPO valuation
“I think Elon, what Elon said Publicly on X, it ain't going to be two trillion. Maybe he'll change his mind. He said two trillion was too high. So whatever his number is, I think he's going to get it on IPO day. He's going to will it into existence. The underwr…”
Jason Lemkin Apr 9, 2026 ▶ 35:54 OpenAI Buys TBPN & Their Management Team Reboot | Mercor Hack & Why Now is the Time for Cyber · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: SpaceX acquired xAI in a $1.25T combined valuation merger
“Last few hours, or 24 hours, SpaceX has completed the acquisition of XAI, valuing the combined private company at 1.25 trillion, as Elon moves to pair the businesses together.”
Harry Stebbings Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 1:23 The SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse |Microsoft Lost $360B & NVIDIA’s $100B Dispute with OpenAI
Prediction Held up
O'Driscoll: Founders Fund's SpaceX deal will return $50B–$100B
“There's no doubt in a world where one investment might return 50 to a hundred Billion dollars. Everyone else has to feel just a teeny tiny tad irrelevant compared to that return for founders fund and good on them. It's a 20 year compounder at 50% plus or minus…”
Rory O'Driscoll Dec 18, 2025 ▶ 1:16:51 Will Cursor Kill Figma? Lightspeed Raises $9B & OpenAI’s $1B from Disney & #1 App in App Store · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Held up
Calacanis: SpaceX will go public at a valuation of $1T or more
“Tesla had to IPO. Now it was a different time. It really barely had any revenue, but same guy running them. It IPO'd at 1.7 billion, which seemed very expensive. 1.7 billion. The sister company will IPO at 1.7 trillion or one trillion.”
Jason Lemkin Dec 18, 2025 ▶ 9:46 Will Cursor Kill Figma? Lightspeed Raises $9B & OpenAI’s $1B from Disney & #1 App in App Store · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Held up
Moore: SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic will reach multi-trillion dollar outcomes
“We're talking about going from talking about 30 to fifty billion dollar outcomes to multi-trillion dollar outcomes in the form of SpaceX or OpenAI or Anthropic.”
Bucky Moore May 5, 2025 ▶ 2:27 Bucky Moore @ Lightspeed Venture Partners: Why You Cannot Do VC If You Do Not Do Pre-Seed · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Held up
Stripe and SpaceX Will Not Go Public in 2024
“I don't expect Stripe or SpaceX to go out next year, and Databricks alone won't be enough to crack open the IPO windows.”
Harry Stebbings Oct 20, 2023 ▶ 20:33 20VC: NEW FORMAT: Harry Stebbings on Why Seed Pricing is as High as Ever, Why Series A is the Best Place to Invest Today, Why Growth Founders Need to Reshape Expectations, Why M&A Windows Remain Shut and When Will IPO Windows Crack Open
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: SpaceX revenue run rate is around $20 billion
“For context, the total SpaceX revenue run rates around twenty billion.”
Rory O'Driscoll May 14, 2026 ▶ 8:45 Anthropic Buys Compute From Elon & Commits $200BN to Google | Cerebras IPO | Ramp Raises at $40BN · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Founders Fund deployed $3B in under 12 months into mega-rounds
“Founders Fund, deploying three billion in under 12 months, but deploying it into Stripe, SpaceX, and Anduril.”
Harry Stebbings Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 17:13 Predictions for 2026: Top Buy & Biggest Short | Why Salesforce Could Win & NVIDIA’s Challenges · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Starlink revenue surpassed the US government as SpaceX's top customer
“The truth is SpaceX, it's just such an amazing achievement that even if your, what was your largest customer, interestingly, is now no longer your largest customer because Starling is such a big business.”
Rory O'Driscoll Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 1:06:31 Elon’s Empire: SpaceX, Tesla, Neuralink After the Storm & Anduril’s $2.6BN Power Move · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Most Value in Tesla and SpaceX Was Created After Year 10
“At the 10 year mark was some of the greatest gains. If you look at, okay, at the 10 year mark, where it was Tesla, where it was SpaceX. And there were many, many billions of dollars, hundreds of billions of dollars of value creation still to come.”
Steve Jurvetson Aug 3, 2020 ▶ 27:00 20VC: Steve Jurvetson on 20 Years of Friendship with Elon Musk, How To Analyse Market Timing, Why Venture Does Not Scale & Why He Has Never Sold A Share in Any Company He Holds
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Polymarket pricing gave SpaceX a 50-60% chance at $2T IPO
“Polymarket said the probability of SpaceX being worth two trillion dollars on the IPO went up to 50, 60%, right? From a lower number, right?”
Rory O'Driscoll Mar 26, 2026 ▶ 17:12 Why You Need a $1B Fund To Do Series A | SpaceX at $2TRN & Data Centers in Space | Groq's $20BN Deal · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Founders Fund closing $6B in new capital after deploying $3.3B in 11 months
“Founders Fund are closing in on six billion dollars of new funds. They invested the last 3.3 in 11 months in amazing businesses like SpaceX and Stripe and Anduril.”
Harry Stebbings Mar 12, 2026 ▶ 50:17 Anthropic vs The Pentagon: Who Wins? | The Data Center Arms Race | The Ultimate Stock Picks · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Founders Fund put $40M into SpaceX from a $200M fund
“And I think even Founders Fund, you know, I mean, back, back in Founders Fund too, I mean, SpaceX was a, basically a forty million dollar position out of a two hundred million dollar fund, and it was a rocket company.”
Justin Fishner-Wolfson Feb 4, 2021 ▶ 15:48 20VC: Why VCs Should Care More About Cost of Capital and Less About Ownership, Investing Lessons from working with Peter Thiel at Founders Fund, Why Liquidity Aligns Incentives Between Founders and Investors & Why It Is The Last Double That Matters in Ven
Assertion Supported
SpaceX and Planet's 2015 Fundraising Doubled All Prior Space VC
“So we invested in two, exactly two space companies, Planet and SpaceX. They raised 1.1 billion dollars in 2015, and that alone was double all venture capital in the space sector combined forever, meaning prior.”
Steve Jurvetson Aug 3, 2020 ▶ 20:23 20VC: Steve Jurvetson on 20 Years of Friendship with Elon Musk, How To Analyse Market Timing, Why Venture Does Not Scale & Why He Has Never Sold A Share in Any Company He Holds
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Tiny Capital has invested in Superhuman, SpaceX, Pitch, and Buffer
“Tiny does also invest in businesses, including the likes of Superhuman, SpaceX, Pitch, and Buffer, to name a few.”
Harry Stebbings Jun 22, 2020 ▶ 0:36 20VC: Andrew Wilkinson on Building The Berkshire Hathway of Tech, Sustainable vs Unsustainable Growth and The Relationship Between Money and Freedom
Assertion Supported
SpaceX began as a temporary project to photograph a plant on Mars
“SpaceX with all of its grand and glory was started as effectively almost as like a Hollywood ask moonshot project to just like take a photo of a plant on Mars, and Elon was going to find some Russian rockets to just send a bunch of stuff to Mars, cameras, take…”
Daniel Gross Aug 27, 2018 ▶ 24:11 20VC: The Commonalities In The Makings Of Truly Great People, How Silicon Valley Will Become The Home For Crypto and Frontier Tech Once Again & Why Games Are Such A Good Tool To Understand Human Motivation with Daniel Gross, Founder & Pioneer, Head of AI
Assertion Supported
Singerman: Joined Founders Fund after Sean Parker introduction during SpaceX deal evaluation
“And that's when I met Sean Parker and we became friends and he. Said, Hey, why don't you check out what we're doing at Founders Fund? And I came in and that's when we were considering a little investment in a company called SpaceX and, you know, said, this is …”
Brian Singerman Oct 31, 2022 ▶ 0:49 Brian Singerman: How I Became a Partner at Founders Fund, Why We Put $400M into Anduril | 20VC #943 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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