why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Held up
Lemkin: Elon Musk will force underwriters to meet SpaceX target IPO valuation
“I think Elon, what Elon said Publicly on X, it ain't going to be two trillion. Maybe he'll change his mind. He said two trillion was too high. So whatever his number is, I think he's going to get it on IPO day. He's going to will it into existence. The underwr…”
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: SpaceX acquired xAI in a $1.25T combined valuation merger
“Last few hours, or 24 hours, SpaceX has completed the acquisition of XAI, valuing the combined private company at 1.25 trillion, as Elon moves to pair the businesses together.”
Prediction Held up
O'Driscoll: Founders Fund's SpaceX deal will return $50B–$100B
“There's no doubt in a world where one investment might return 50 to a hundred Billion dollars. Everyone else has to feel just a teeny tiny tad irrelevant compared to that return for founders fund and good on them. It's a 20 year compounder at 50% plus or minus…”
Prediction Held up
Calacanis: SpaceX will go public at a valuation of $1T or more
“Tesla had to IPO. Now it was a different time. It really barely had any revenue, but same guy running them. It IPO'd at 1.7 billion, which seemed very expensive. 1.7 billion. The sister company will IPO at 1.7 trillion or one trillion.”
Prediction Held up
Moore: SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic will reach multi-trillion dollar outcomes
“We're talking about going from talking about 30 to fifty billion dollar outcomes to multi-trillion dollar outcomes in the form of SpaceX or OpenAI or Anthropic.”
Prediction Held up
Stripe and SpaceX Will Not Go Public in 2024
“I don't expect Stripe or SpaceX to go out next year, and Databricks alone won't be enough to crack open the IPO windows.”
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: SpaceX revenue run rate is around $20 billion
“For context, the total SpaceX revenue run rates around twenty billion.”
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Founders Fund deployed $3B in under 12 months into mega-rounds
“Founders Fund, deploying three billion in under 12 months, but deploying it into Stripe, SpaceX, and Anduril.”
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Starlink revenue surpassed the US government as SpaceX's top customer
“The truth is SpaceX, it's just such an amazing achievement that even if your, what was your largest customer, interestingly, is now no longer your largest customer because Starling is such a big business.”
Assertion Supported
Most Value in Tesla and SpaceX Was Created After Year 10
“At the 10 year mark was some of the greatest gains. If you look at, okay, at the 10 year mark, where it was Tesla, where it was SpaceX. And there were many, many billions of dollars, hundreds of billions of dollars of value creation still to come.”
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: Polymarket pricing gave SpaceX a 50-60% chance at $2T IPO
“Polymarket said the probability of SpaceX being worth two trillion dollars on the IPO went up to 50, 60%, right? From a lower number, right?”
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Founders Fund closing $6B in new capital after deploying $3.3B in 11 months
“Founders Fund are closing in on six billion dollars of new funds. They invested the last 3.3 in 11 months in amazing businesses like SpaceX and Stripe and Anduril.”
Assertion Supported
Founders Fund put $40M into SpaceX from a $200M fund
“And I think even Founders Fund, you know, I mean, back, back in Founders Fund too, I mean, SpaceX was a, basically a forty million dollar position out of a two hundred million dollar fund, and it was a rocket company.”
Assertion Supported
SpaceX and Planet's 2015 Fundraising Doubled All Prior Space VC
“So we invested in two, exactly two space companies, Planet and SpaceX. They raised 1.1 billion dollars in 2015, and that alone was double all venture capital in the space sector combined forever, meaning prior.”
Assertion Supported
Stebbings: Tiny Capital has invested in Superhuman, SpaceX, Pitch, and Buffer
“Tiny does also invest in businesses, including the likes of Superhuman, SpaceX, Pitch, and Buffer, to name a few.”
Assertion Supported
SpaceX began as a temporary project to photograph a plant on Mars
“SpaceX with all of its grand and glory was started as effectively almost as like a Hollywood ask moonshot project to just like take a photo of a plant on Mars, and Elon was going to find some Russian rockets to just send a bunch of stuff to Mars, cameras, take…”
Assertion Supported
Singerman: Joined Founders Fund after Sean Parker introduction during SpaceX deal evaluation
“And that's when I met Sean Parker and we became friends and he. Said, Hey, why don't you check out what we're doing at Founders Fund? And I came in and that's when we were considering a little investment in a company called SpaceX and, you know, said, this is …”