The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

3statements match

0resolved → 3open claims → 0supported → 0contradicted →

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Open · timeframe Jul 2025

Stebbings: Benchmark AI portfolio companies HeyGen, Sierra, and Fireworks hit $100M+ ARR

“McCaw over a hundred million in ARR. Hey Jen hitting a hundred million in ARR. Fireworks a hundred and forty million in ARR. Sierra with Brett Taylor over a hundred million in ARR.”

Harry Stebbings Jul 31, 2025 ▶ 5:24 Why Apple Needs a Management Overhaul & Why Google is Catching Up with Hyperscalers · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2031

Sierra will not pre-train foundation models, leaving capex to major AI labs

“And we're not, you know, we're not doing our own pre-training. We'll leave the capital expense there to, you know, the labs and the larger companies.”

Clay Bavor Jul 4, 2026 ▶ 5:40 Open Models vs Frontier Models: Who Actually Wins? | The $100K Token Budget Every Engineer Will Need · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2029

Sierra aims for far greater customer volume than Palantir

“My understanding is, you know, Palantir has kind of low hundreds of customers. We are and intend to be at a lot larger scale than that.”

Clay Bavor Jul 4, 2026 ▶ 36:17 Open Models vs Frontier Models: Who Actually Wins? | The $100K Token Budget Every Engineer Will Need · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

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