why aren't all 25 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2045
Odoo will displace SAP within 10 to 20 years
“First, I think it's just a matter of time. I think I don't know how they can survive to what's coming in from them. We have so much advance, years in our head, we are stealing so much clients to them, that it's just a matter of time for me. But it's gonna take…”
Opinion
SAP's S/4HANA ERP product is a disaster, says Odoo CEO
“Thanks for Sapphorana, which is a disaster. Nobody wants to go. So that opens the door to new entrants like us.”
Opinion
Odoo's product is years ahead of Microsoft and SAP
“I think our product is years ahead of the competition. There is no way they can do what we do.”
Opinion
SAP and Microsoft enterprise software is shitty, slow, and expensive
“On the market, you have two types of market. You have the large players, like SAP and Microsoft. They do several applications, but it's shitty, it's slow, it's expensive. And people are not happy using it.”
Opinion
Ariel Cohen: SAP and Salesforce haven't innovated since the 90s and 2000s
“I think the last time that SAP innovated something was in the nineties, and the last time that, that Salesforce innovated was in the beginning of 2000.”
Opinion
Cohen: SAP and Salesforce have not innovated in decades
“Salesforce and SAP, which are not innovating. I think the last time that SAP innovated something was in the nineties, and the last time that the, that Salesforce innovated was in the beginning of 2000.”
Assertion Partly supported
Acharya: Coding agents dramatically lower enterprise software switching costs
“But now with coding agents, the complexity of transitioning from SAP to Oracle is dramatically lower, the speed, the risk. So that is how I think coding agents shows up in enterprise software, especially amongst public names. Decrease switching costs, more cus…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2028
Only Microsoft or SAP are large enough to potentially acquire Deel
“I think right now, unless you know, Microsoft or SAP, more Microsoft decides they want to get into HR. I don't see anyone being able to bring us in”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ryan Smith had two hours to decide on SAP's $8B offer
“I had two hours to decide whether we're selling to SAP for eight billion dollars cash.”
Opinion
Ryan Smith: Receiving SAP's $8B cash payout was underwhelming
“The day that the wires hit, I remember sitting, we were at a president's club, so we were at a sales retreat with all of our people, and you could kind of look around, and you could see everyone's phones, right? Like, people were, like, with their spouses, lik…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Odoo and ERP challengers will grow much faster than Salesforce and SAP
“I think same as SAP, most of the, these companies have still a good way to, I mean, you, they will continue. But other challenges like us will grow much faster.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
SAP failed in the small and mid-sized business market
“On small and mid-sized, they failed. On the large companies, they are still the main option.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Dines: Salesforce and SAP Will Limit AI Agents to Own Platforms
“What's the interest of Salesforce to provide amazing connections to SAP and vice versa? No, it's not. So they will focus on building agents that work specifically for workloads that stay within their platforms.”
Assertion Contradicted
Cohen: Salesforce and SAP revenues are currently declining, not growing
“If I look at the numbers, I think both Salesforce and SAP actually specifically now are not growing and in fact declining, right?”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Clark: SAP's core ERP will outlast all software from its generation
“SAP's core ERP, I believe, is going to outlast everything of that generation”
Insight
B2B startups can easily out-brand legacy incumbents SAP and Oracle
“It's actually not that hard to compete with SAP and Oracle and try to be a little sexy as a brand against those guys.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Leary: Great European startups will always be acquired by global capital
“No, because the capital is global, highly mobile. The biggest occurs in Europe are Google, Microsoft, SAP, and I don't care. And now Chinese companies Chinese companies, Japanese companies, I think that that makes it less of a problem. So big companies will be…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: Salesforce will thrive long-term like legacy system-of-record giants
“All the big pre-SaaS companies that had systems of record, Oracle, PeopleSoft, which rolled up into Oracle and SAP. Survived and financially thrived, even if they're not exciting in the age of cloud. And I, my guess is Salesforce does the same in a way that th…”
Assertion Supported
Halligan: Shopify is the only SaaS stock outperforming Oracle and SAP
“If you go from that date and you look at you look at Oracle and you look at SAP, they're both growing, like, 230%. The only SaaS company since August 22 It's growing faster. Shopify. They're growing 300%. So they're outpacing HubSpot, Salesforce, Adobe Box, At…”
Assertion Open
Odoo put 'sorry SAP' homepage live for Odoo Version 14
“Yeah, we used it when we released the version 14, I guess because that was a really good version that was, I mean, my opinion, much better than SAP at the time, so we used the domain name, we replaced the homepage with one big word, sorry SAP.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Smith: 20% of Qualtrics staff voiced objections after SAP acquisition
“We had 20% of our employees come in and be like, hey, I didn't sign up for this.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Fabien Pinckaers bought domain sorrysep.com at age 26 to target SAP
“When I was 26, I purchased the domain name sorrysep.com, because I thought that one day I would be much bigger than them, and then I would use this domain name.”
Assertion Partly supported
Qualtrics raised no venture capital for its first 12 years
“Qualtrics, which SAP just acquired for eight billion dollars. They didn't raise their first venture capital until 12 years into the company. I believe it was 18 years old when it was acquired”
Assertion Partly supported
Adamic Scaled Concur From $50M to $1B Revenue Before SAP Acquisition
“I joined when we were about 500 people, and about 50 or sixty million dollars in sales and we grew back to almost a billion dollars before we were bought by SAP.”
Opinion
Clark: The SAP CTO title opened every door in Silicon Valley
“SAP was a great job, because everyone took the call from the CTO of SAP, right?”