The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 25 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2045
Odoo will displace SAP within 10 to 20 years
“First, I think it's just a matter of time. I think I don't know how they can survive to what's coming in from them. We have so much advance, years in our head, we are stealing so much clients to them, that it's just a matter of time for me. But it's gonna take…”
Fabien Pinckaers Feb 12, 2025 ▶ 46:25 Fabien Pinckaers, CEO @Odoo: The Billionaire Founder Who Doesn’t Care About Money | E1259 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
SAP's S/4HANA ERP product is a disaster, says Odoo CEO
“Thanks for Sapphorana, which is a disaster. Nobody wants to go. So that opens the door to new entrants like us.”
Fabien Pinckaers Feb 12, 2025 ▶ 1:00:07 Fabien Pinckaers, CEO @Odoo: The Billionaire Founder Who Doesn’t Care About Money | E1259 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Odoo's product is years ahead of Microsoft and SAP
“I think our product is years ahead of the competition. There is no way they can do what we do.”
Fabien Pinckaers Feb 12, 2025 ▶ 20:06 Fabien Pinckaers, CEO @Odoo: The Billionaire Founder Who Doesn’t Care About Money | E1259 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
SAP and Microsoft enterprise software is shitty, slow, and expensive
“On the market, you have two types of market. You have the large players, like SAP and Microsoft. They do several applications, but it's shitty, it's slow, it's expensive. And people are not happy using it.”
Fabien Pinckaers Feb 12, 2025 ▶ 40:41 Fabien Pinckaers, CEO @Odoo: The Billionaire Founder Who Doesn’t Care About Money | E1259 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Ariel Cohen: SAP and Salesforce haven't innovated since the 90s and 2000s
“I think the last time that SAP innovated something was in the nineties, and the last time that, that Salesforce innovated was in the beginning of 2000.”
Ariel Cohen Jun 9, 2023 ▶ 16:57 20VC: What are the World's Tech Leaders Running From? Fear? Insecurity? Poverty? What Drives the Best with Orlando Bravo, Bill Ackman, Dara Khosrowshahi, Parker Conrad, Tobi Luttke, Brian Armstrong and more..
Opinion
Cohen: SAP and Salesforce have not innovated in decades
“Salesforce and SAP, which are not innovating. I think the last time that SAP innovated something was in the nineties, and the last time that the, that Salesforce innovated was in the beginning of 2000.”
Ariel Cohen Feb 8, 2023 ▶ 5:50 Ariel Cohen: The Death of Salesforce; How OpenAI is Changing the Travel Industry | 20VC #975 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Partly supported
Acharya: Coding agents dramatically lower enterprise software switching costs
“But now with coding agents, the complexity of transitioning from SAP to Oracle is dramatically lower, the speed, the risk. So that is how I think coding agents shows up in enterprise software, especially amongst public names. Decrease switching costs, more cus…”
Anish Acharya Feb 9, 2026 ▶ 7:23 a16z, Anish Acharya: Is SaaS Dead? Do Margins Still Matter? Why We Are Not in an AI Bubble? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2028
Only Microsoft or SAP are large enough to potentially acquire Deel
“I think right now, unless you know, Microsoft or SAP, more Microsoft decides they want to get into HR. I don't see anyone being able to bring us in”
Alex Bouaziz Feb 1, 2023 ▶ 53:36 Alex Bouaziz: How We Became a $12B HR Company with 2,000 Remote Employees | 20VC #973 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ryan Smith had two hours to decide on SAP's $8B offer
“I had two hours to decide whether we're selling to SAP for eight billion dollars cash.”
Ryan Smith May 11, 2021 ▶ 17:56 20VC: Qualtrics Founder, Ryan Smith on The 2 Hour Decision Whether To Sell Qualtrics for $8Bn in Cash, Why Tying Your Identity To Your Company Will Never Make You Happy and His Relationship To Risk, Wealth and Responsibility as a Result
Opinion
Ryan Smith: Receiving SAP's $8B cash payout was underwhelming
“The day that the wires hit, I remember sitting, we were at a president's club, so we were at a sales retreat with all of our people, and you could kind of look around, and you could see everyone's phones, right? Like, people were, like, with their spouses, lik…”
Ryan Smith May 11, 2021 ▶ 21:07 20VC: Qualtrics Founder, Ryan Smith on The 2 Hour Decision Whether To Sell Qualtrics for $8Bn in Cash, Why Tying Your Identity To Your Company Will Never Make You Happy and His Relationship To Risk, Wealth and Responsibility as a Result
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Odoo and ERP challengers will grow much faster than Salesforce and SAP
“I think same as SAP, most of the, these companies have still a good way to, I mean, you, they will continue. But other challenges like us will grow much faster.”
Fabien Pinckaers Feb 12, 2025 ▶ 56:00 Fabien Pinckaers, CEO @Odoo: The Billionaire Founder Who Doesn’t Care About Money | E1259 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
SAP failed in the small and mid-sized business market
“On small and mid-sized, they failed. On the large companies, they are still the main option.”
Fabien Pinckaers Feb 12, 2025 ▶ 47:00 Fabien Pinckaers, CEO @Odoo: The Billionaire Founder Who Doesn’t Care About Money | E1259 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Dines: Salesforce and SAP Will Limit AI Agents to Own Platforms
“What's the interest of Salesforce to provide amazing connections to SAP and vice versa? No, it's not. So they will focus on building agents that work specifically for workloads that stay within their platforms.”
Daniel Dines Dec 18, 2024 ▶ 21:18 Daniel Dines, UiPath CEO & Founder: Why Agents Do Not Mean RPA is F*** | E1240 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Contradicted
Cohen: Salesforce and SAP revenues are currently declining, not growing
“If I look at the numbers, I think both Salesforce and SAP actually specifically now are not growing and in fact declining, right?”
Ariel Cohen Feb 8, 2023 ▶ 31:53 Ariel Cohen: The Death of Salesforce; How OpenAI is Changing the Travel Industry | 20VC #975 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Clark: SAP's core ERP will outlast all software from its generation
“SAP's core ERP, I believe, is going to outlast everything of that generation”
Quentin Clark Dec 28, 2020 ▶ 33:08 20VC: Lessons From Working with Bill Gates, How To Lead Without Authority and The Difference Between Leadership and Management & How Fundraising Changes In A COVID World with Quentin Clark, Managing Director @ General Catalyst
Insight
B2B startups can easily out-brand legacy incumbents SAP and Oracle
“It's actually not that hard to compete with SAP and Oracle and try to be a little sexy as a brand against those guys.”
Christian Lanng Mar 24, 2017 ▶ 13:08 20VC: How To Raise $200m In Any Economic Climate, Scale From Garage To Global In Record Time & The Biggest Startup You Have Not Heard About with Christian Lanng, Founder & CEO @ Tradeshift
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Leary: Great European startups will always be acquired by global capital
“No, because the capital is global, highly mobile. The biggest occurs in Europe are Google, Microsoft, SAP, and I don't care. And now Chinese companies Chinese companies, Japanese companies, I think that that makes it less of a problem. So big companies will be…”
Ciaran O'Leary Mar 16, 2016 ▶ 21:04 20VC: The Three Fundamental Forces in Society with Ciaran O'Leary, Partner @ BlueYard
Prediction Not checkable as stated
O'Driscoll: Salesforce will thrive long-term like legacy system-of-record giants
“All the big pre-SaaS companies that had systems of record, Oracle, PeopleSoft, which rolled up into Oracle and SAP. Survived and financially thrived, even if they're not exciting in the age of cloud. And I, my guess is Salesforce does the same in a way that th…”
Rory O'Driscoll Mar 12, 2026 ▶ 1:17:49 Anthropic vs The Pentagon: Who Wins? | The Data Center Arms Race | The Ultimate Stock Picks · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Halligan: Shopify is the only SaaS stock outperforming Oracle and SAP
“If you go from that date and you look at you look at Oracle and you look at SAP, they're both growing, like, 230%. The only SaaS company since August 22 It's growing faster. Shopify. They're growing 300%. So they're outpacing HubSpot, Salesforce, Adobe Box, At…”
Brian Halligan Aug 7, 2025 ▶ 1:00:57 Figma's 250% Pop - The Greatest IPO Mispricing Ever? Meta & Microsoft Blowout Quarters: Broken Down · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Open
Odoo put 'sorry SAP' homepage live for Odoo Version 14
“Yeah, we used it when we released the version 14, I guess because that was a really good version that was, I mean, my opinion, much better than SAP at the time, so we used the domain name, we replaced the homepage with one big word, sorry SAP.”
Fabien Pinckaers Feb 12, 2025 ▶ 45:47 Fabien Pinckaers, CEO @Odoo: The Billionaire Founder Who Doesn’t Care About Money | E1259 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Smith: 20% of Qualtrics staff voiced objections after SAP acquisition
“We had 20% of our employees come in and be like, hey, I didn't sign up for this.”
Ryan Smith May 11, 2021 ▶ 12:45 20VC: Qualtrics Founder, Ryan Smith on The 2 Hour Decision Whether To Sell Qualtrics for $8Bn in Cash, Why Tying Your Identity To Your Company Will Never Make You Happy and His Relationship To Risk, Wealth and Responsibility as a Result
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Fabien Pinckaers bought domain sorrysep.com at age 26 to target SAP
“When I was 26, I purchased the domain name sorrysep.com, because I thought that one day I would be much bigger than them, and then I would use this domain name.”
Fabien Pinckaers Feb 12, 2025 ▶ 45:23 Fabien Pinckaers, CEO @Odoo: The Billionaire Founder Who Doesn’t Care About Money | E1259 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Partly supported
Qualtrics raised no venture capital for its first 12 years
“Qualtrics, which SAP just acquired for eight billion dollars. They didn't raise their first venture capital until 12 years into the company. I believe it was 18 years old when it was acquired”
Jeff Richards Mar 4, 2019 ▶ 9:01 20VC: The Transition From Founder To CEO, How To Determine When To Stretch On Price in Venture & The Benefits of Attribution for Partnership Dynamics with Jeff Richards, Managing Partner @ GGV Capital
Assertion Partly supported
Adamic Scaled Concur From $50M to $1B Revenue Before SAP Acquisition
“I joined when we were about 500 people, and about 50 or sixty million dollars in sales and we grew back to almost a billion dollars before we were bought by SAP.”
Doug Adamic Sep 8, 2023 ▶ 2:14 Doug Adamic: Why Discounting is BS; How to Reduce Sales Cycles and Create Urgency | E1058 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Clark: The SAP CTO title opened every door in Silicon Valley
“SAP was a great job, because everyone took the call from the CTO of SAP, right?”
Quentin Clark Dec 28, 2020 ▶ 3:54 20VC: Lessons From Working with Bill Gates, How To Lead Without Authority and The Difference Between Leadership and Management & How Fundraising Changes In A COVID World with Quentin Clark, Managing Director @ General Catalyst
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