why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Masad: Replit has been stuck in Apple App Store review for months
“Replit has been on the App Store since twenty-twenty-two doing exactly the same thing, allowing people to generate or write code. And running it in a browser window. Suddenly they're saying that we are you know, we're not complying with their guidelines. And w…”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Lovable and Replit both reach nine-figure revenues
“And that's why lovable and Replit are in a death match. And it's very powerful. They're both at nine figures in revenue. They won't kill each other.”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Replit raised at $3B valuation with similar $100M ARR to Lovable
“13 days later, the exact same company called Replit. That's the one I use. Same company closes at three billion. Basically the same ARR, basically the same company.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lemkin: Figma and AI coding tools will compete within 12 months
“Today, they're great partners. It doesn't make sense that they will be great partners for prototyping in 12 months. It makes no sense.”
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: Replit builds features with Claude Sonnet and verifies code via Codex
“Replit, if you have a complex feature, Replit builds it in Claude, Sonnet, not Open, it builds it in Sonnet to save money, and then it has Codex come in and check the work. It has both of them.”
Assertion Supported
O'Driscoll: AI coding tools Lovable and Replit generate $300M-$400M in revenue
“If you take, you know, again, to your example of, I'm sorry, my brain Figma, right? The maker, the next generation product tools like lovable, And Replit, right, they're doing three, four hundred million in space.”
Prediction Partly held up
Lemkin: Replit V4 will autonomously build software features overnight
“I know on the next release of Replit, not only does it happen because they've built their own set of guard roles, but the agents do it at night. So in the next release of Replit, when you log in the next day, it will have built three to four features for you o…”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Replit hits $300M revenue with 300 employees and 11 GTM staff
“I was at Replit the other day at three hundred million in revenue, 300 people. It's, there's like 11 people in go to market.”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Replit grew from $10M to $100M ARR in 5.5 months
“Replit, 10 to a hundred million in 5.5 months, right, announced yesterday”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: I Launched 10 Apps in 125 Days Without an Engineer
“So I've been vibe coding for a 126 days. Feels like a lot of change. So I did this presentation, all hands at Replit, 125 days and 10 apps. I launched 10 apps in 125 days without an engineer.”
Prediction Held up
Lemkin: Replit and Lovable will surpass $250M combined ARR
“I would say over, over two 50, but barely.”
Assertion Supported
Lemkin: Replit updated platform to dynamically rotate LLM providers automatically
“Now with Replit, you don't pick your model anymore. It's all dynamic. It's all gone. You don't pick a lot. You don't pick high reasoning. You don't pick short reasoning. You don't pick anything. It just, and it rotates Google and others”