The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Ehrenberg: Polymarket and Kalshi Are Pure Regulatory Arbitrage Plays
“This is the purest regulatory arbitrage play of all time. Okay. If you can look at the cumulative market cap of regulated sports betting and look at how it has dropped in response to the rise of Polymarket and Calci, who are not subject to the same rules and r…”
O'Driscoll: Political prediction markets are too small to build $100B companies
“I don't think predicting who's the next Who's going to win the general election in the UK or who's going to be the next president in the US is a huge, enormous, ginormous business. I love it. I find it fun. It's actually the most interesting part of Polymarket…”
O'Driscoll: 90% of Prediction Market Business Is Sports Betting
“This is two non-sports betting companies who are doing quote prediction markets where all we talk about is the 10% of the revenue that's political, and 90% of their business is sports betting, but we're not calling it that, and they're just killing it because …”
Frankel: Kalshi and Polymarket are essentially gambling like DraftKings
“It has to be, right? Like it, I mean, if you look at like Kelsey and Polymarket, what's the difference there between DraftKings and Betway? And they seem very similar to me.”
O'Driscoll: Intercontinental Exchange owns ~20% stake in Polymarket
“ICE as in the owners of NASDAQ, the, I think, Intercontinental Exchange has a big ownership stake in Polymarket. Why that's relevant is that's a company that runs ICE that runs stock trading and, you know, real financial markets taking a significant, I think, …”
Mansour: Kalshi and Polymarket pushed each other's product and marketing harder
“Without Polymarket, we wouldn't have I think like, Pushed our marketing and pushed our product as hard. And without us, they wouldn't have pushed their marketing and their product.”
Lemkin: Kalshi is a safer long-term bet than Polymarket
“So based on my limited knowledge, I'm going Kalshi because I feel like it is a safer long-term bet than someone that is writing the current political vibes, which are all in favor of everything here. It just could, it was a lot different a couple of years ago,…”
Maguire: Polymarket odds fail to price in nation-state election interference
“I don't even think the polymarket odds or any of the odds are that reflective, because I don't think that they price in Like, nation state activity or cheating Effectively.”
Park: Simile Differentiates From Prediction Markets by Modeling Causality
“Where I see similarly come in is we are a company that is not just interested in what's going to happen, but more on how it's going to happen and why.”
Randle: Prediction markets show 70% odds of Tesla-SpaceX merger in two years
“If you look at the poly market Calci odds on a Tesla SpaceX merger, again, you know, not, not that those markets are so big that they're that indicative, but I think the probability that they have on there is something like 70% in the next two years or somethi…”
O'Driscoll: Polymarket pricing gave SpaceX a 50-60% chance at $2T IPO
“Polymarket said the probability of SpaceX being worth two trillion dollars on the IPO went up to 50, 60%, right? From a lower number, right?”
O'Driscoll: Sports betting accounts for 70%-80% of prediction market volume
“I think, you know, the interesting thing about those businesses is if you look at the volume, and I didn't check, I think I checked, it's still 70, 80% sports betting, right?”
FOMO Would Build Prediction Markets on Polymarket or Kalshi
“We haven't integrated prediction markets yet, and I'm not sure exactly where it fits in on our roadmap. I think it's very interesting there. I think our first version of the product would be built on something like a poly market in Calci.”