why aren't all 55 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Hockey: DOJ blocking Visa's acquisition of Plaid was unfair and incorrect
“Is I don't think it was fair. I don't think it was correct, but it doesn't, my opinion doesn't matter is, you know, the government is a decision maker at the end of the day.”
Insight
Perret: Founders prioritize mission over purchase price in acquisition talks
“I don't think that most people, like, immediately orient on value, the dollar value of the acquisition. Like, sure, yeah, it reaches a threshold and the dollar value, like, starts to make sense. But I think when people really go through that Agony around selli…”
Disclosure
Perret: Walking away from the Visa acquisition was a 99-1 decision
“And ended up making what I think was a 51 49 call to say, like, it's the right answer to sell the business. For a variety of reasons at the time. A year later, we had that same meeting, same group of people sitting in my living room, having the same, same styl…”
Disclosure
Plaid CTO Admits He Can No Longer Manage a 20-Person Team
“Like, I don't think I would be a good manager for a 20 person team anymore. I was when I joined Plaid, but I'm like so out of, that was six and a half years ago, like I've lost all those muscles.”
Opinion
Building $10B+ Companies Requires Massive Personal Sacrifice With Rare Exceptions
“Well, so I know a few truly great people who I think are, have the right viewpoint and are really good at motivating and delegating, meaning they create the structure for success, like the North star, the product roadmap, and then they're able to motivate othe…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Next Big SaaS Winners Will Consolidate Features Over UX Differentiation
“I think for the existing startups, what you''ve got to look at is it probably isn''t going to be UX and there''s probably going to be consolidation because we''ve over verticalized things by going after every like bit of the software with a slightly better UX …”
Insight
Perret: Hire candidates for world-class strengths, not an absence of weaknesses
“We look for the areas where someone is truly world class, and we prefer to hire people that have a few elements in which they're totally amazing, where they can really lean into their strengths, than hiring for the absence of weaknesses.”
Opinion
Greze: Silicon Valley hiring is no harder now than competing with Stripe at Plaid
“I don't find it crazy, honestly. Like I think when I was at Plaid and we were competing with talent for like Stripe, that felt like no harder than what I'm doing now.”
Disclosure
Rampell: Haggled over $5M on Plaid's Series B, later invested at $2.4B
“It probably was one of the first rounds of Plaid, which I subsequently corrected myself for by doing the Series C of Plaid. So I think we invested at 2.4 billion for the Series C, and I was debating a five million dollar difference with Zach for the Series B. …”
Opinion
Goldberg: OKRs do not work well for early-stage software companies
“He was saying, why were they lifted from the manufacturing industry and plopped down into the software world? And I would very much agree with that.”
Opinion
Stebbings: Plaid succeeded by solving a manual grind problem, not deep tech
“Plaid is a great example. It is a company built on a grind problem. Intense amounts of integrations, data challenges. It's not technically hard, but the man hours to do that was insane.”
Disclosure
Perret: Plaid's initial $500K seed round collapsed when the lead backed out
“We actually lined up this early funding round it's a 500 K funding round at, ah, like a two million dollar valuation. The lead investor for this funding round, like, backed out. And he was investing, like, a 100,000 dollars or something like that. And then the…”
Disclosure
Perret: Raising venture capital is a massive waste of founder time
“I think that raising money is like a big waste of time, so we try to raise money as infrequently as we possibly can with implied.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2029
Perret: Plaid will eventually surpass its $13.4 billion peak valuation
“Now, I believe that we'll do it. I believe it'll take some time, but I believe that we'll do it.”
Insight
Perret: Teams of specialized, 'spiky' individuals outperform well-rounded hires
“We look for people that are incredible at some things, even if they have, like, glaring weaknesses in other areas. So as long as we have a team that can balance that out, we would rather have the spikey person, because it turns out, you know, a well-rounded pe…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Plaid Sees Equal Remote Engineering Productivity but Lower Employee Belonging
“Like definitely I have no difference in like PR success rate. I think the only thing in remote that's hurting me is Paul's score in terms of belonging and how much fun people are having on the work. Like, I think that has gone down from before, but I think in …”
Insight
Startups Should Standardize Internal HR Policies Rather Than Innovating on Them
“My overarching thesis is that a lot of people things On a lot of people matters, how you level, how you title, how you comp how you organize your org, like your manager to IC ratio, remote hybrid. It's like, pick a thing, pick one of the three options on the m…”
Disclosure
Hockey: 99.9% of my wealth is concentrated in Plaid and Column
“99.9% of my wealth is in platinum column.”
Disclosure
Rampell: a16z orchestrated the initial meeting between Plaid and Visa's CEOs
“We hosted a dinner for the CEO of Visa, and I sat Zach at Plaid right next to Alec Kelly at Visa.”
Disclosure
Perret: Plaid intentionally hires 70% of its team from outside fintech
“Like, we're in financial services. We want a seventy-thirty split. 70% of people on our team should not have come from financial services. 30% should have.”
What-if
Perret: Plaid should have expanded products sequentially, not four at once
“Doing that, going from one to two would have been the right answer, and then maybe we could have done the next two at once, but going from one to four it was super hard.”
Insight
Perret: Plaid enforces hypothesis-driven decision-making starting with a straw man
“Philosophically, like, I have a very hypothesis-driven decision-making model, which is you ask me a question, I have an answer. I, like, I'm, it's not a deeply held answer always but I always start with a starting point. Within the company we push this really …”
Insight
Perret: Startups should copy standard practices for 80% of their operations
“For, you know, 80% of the things in a company, you can literally just copy what's been done before, and 20% of the things you need to be unique and spend all your effort in being really, really unique.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2029
Perret: Plaid aims to enable one-tap Face ID loans within five years
“That's the target that we have is like, I want to apply for a loan. Click apply. Do a face ID. Great. Your application's submitted. Like that's the goal.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Perret: Plaid was accidentally profitable in its early days
“Our business was profitable in the early days. Like, not intentionally, it just happened to be.”
Disclosure
Grimshaw: Missed investing in Plaid by over-intellectualizing bank incentives
“And I, you know, I probably got, I got too intellectual about it.”
Disclosure
Grimshaw regrets missing early investments in Figma, Plaid, and Scale AI
“Dylan at Figma, Zach at Plaid and Alex at Scale, and I have enormous respect for all three of them got to know all three of them really early, and I just, I struggled with it.”
Insight
Grimshaw: Banks lack incentive to offer open account authentication APIs
“Now they have no incentive to do that because if they let you do that, it's easier to move money out, and they don't want you to move money out because they make money on you storing money there. That's how a bank works. You get lock in to other products, but …”
Insight
First-Time Founders Neglect Firing Underperforming Talent Early Enough
“One of the things you realize about founders is first time founders, they don't realize they have to be great at firing. They just think they have to be great at hiring, but you have to be great at realizing when your talent's not working out and identifying t…”
Insight
Fintech Startups Cannot Afford to Move Fast and Break Things
“You're Plaid, you're doing, or Stripe, or whatever you're doing, banking and payments thing, like you're not, you can't move fast and break things. You have to move fast, as fast as you can while not breaking things.”
Insight
Startup Management Structures Typically Break at 15 to 30 Employees
“I think at most companies, the advice that I give is somewhere between 15 and 30 people, things will break on the management side, and the problems that you encounter are not cutie cutter.”
Insight
Hesitating to Replace Weak Function Leads Wastes 18 Months of Momentum
“And if one of your function leads isn't scaling, yeah, you might give them three months, But pretty quickly you got to realize, hey, it's not working because next thing you know, you might have, you know, if you wait like a 12 months and then you make a new hi…”
Insight
Employees Should Be Warned Months Before Being Fired
“I mean, before, meaning it shouldn't come out of left field. The person should know that their performance is not quite meeting the bar that you have anymore, like a couple of months before.”
Disclosure
Plaid Avoids Formal Titles for ICs and Mid-Level Managers
“So even at Plaid amongst ICs, for example, there are no titles, even in managers outside of the person who leads like a giant area, we have don't, we don't have directors and things like that.”
Insight
Generic Interview Questions Yield No Real Signal for Senior Hires
“Where all the interviewers are like, you know, heads of things, and they're all asking the generic question, like, oh, tell me a great success in your career. Tell me about a time you failed. And you don't get real signal from that.”
Disclosure
Plaid's Annual Recurring Revenue Is Significantly Above $100M
“At any scale, like at plaid scale, like 50, I mean, we're much more than that, but like when you get to 50, a hundred million in ARR, you're living in a world of competition.”
Insight
Scaling Startups Should Adopt Industry Job Titles Around 1,000 Employees
“So I think at scale, when you're, like, at our size right now, like, we're, you know, a thousand people total, Like transparently, I think you want to go with the grain of the industry, not against it, because it's just too much fighting to go against it in so…”
Assertion Supported
Plaid Had 40 Employees and Under $10M ARR When Greze Joined
“I joined when the company had, you know, forty-ish people and, you know, less than ten million in ARR.”
Insight
Hiring Panels Cannot Evaluate Top Candidates Without Comparative Baseline Interviews
“You have to have interviewed enough people that you know what greed looks like. And so if you have the perfect candidate be your first hire, like the first person you interview, it's really hard to pull the trigger because people don't have any comparison poin…”
Assertion Partly supported
Plaid raised at triple valuation nine months after acquisition was blocked
“You know, you raise a triple evaluation nine months later.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hockey: Almost every US fintech company works with Plaid
“Pretty much anybody building in financial services in the U.S. Is some way associated with Plaid.”
Disclosure
Mo Koyfman Led Plaid's Seed Round and Was First Outside Director
“I led the seed round in Plaid and joined the founders, William and Zach, as their first outside board member.”
Opinion
Morris: Bank executives no longer believe they can outcompete fintech giants
“Five years ago, the people were saying, this is a flash in the pan, this is not going to work, we are better at technology, we have these customer relationships, look, we've got all these branches. This whole fintech thing is tulips in Amsterdam. I think there…”
Disclosure
Viswanathan: NewView Capital invested in Plaid following NEA's early-stage backing
“Yeah, this is an easy one. It's Plaid, which I was part of the team that led the seed and Series A at NEA many, many years ago, so I know Zach has been on your show, and I think the world of him, so one of my top priority after founding NewView is figuring out…”
Disclosure
Beyroutey: Passing on Plaid was my biggest investment mistake
“The company Plaid, I would count as one of my absolute biggest misses, and the mistake that I made was I looked at the product that they were thinking about building in the very beginning, which was consumer financial management and playing with location at th…”
Insight
Perret: Fast-growing startups require ruthlessly prioritizing which broken things to ignore
“Everything's always broken. It's just a question of how broken and how important as to if we're going to focus on it. And when you're moving really quickly as a startup, you have to be willing to let certain things go, understand that there might be a fire smo…”
Assertion Supported
Perret: Plaid maximized employee secondary sales after the Visa deal collapsed
“When we did the sale to Visa that ultimately didn't go through, we raised a funding round afterwards. One of the most complex things to do in that funding round was I wanted to try to max the number of people that could participate in the secondary. We couldn'…”
Disclosure
Wesley Chan Wrote First Checks Into Robinhood, Plaid, Gusto, and Flexport
“And, you know, I was able to write the first check in the, you know, companies like Robinhood or Platt or Gusto or Flexport.”