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Wesley Chan

Co-Founder and Managing Partner, FPV Ventures · 2 appearances on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

investoroperatorexecutivefpvventures.com ↗Wikipedia ↗

During his early career at Google, Chan founded Google Analytics and Google Voice and helped launch Google Ventures' seed investing program. He later co-founded FPV Ventures after investing at GV and Felicis Ventures, backing companies including Canva, Plaid, and Gusto.

37statements → 12claims → 8claims resolved → 63%fully supported → 4.19/5average certainty → 2.05/5average debate potential → 4.2/5argument clarity · the sources → 14said about them ↓

5 supported 2 partly supported 1 contradicted 4 not checkable as stated how the 12 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

3 predictions · 9 assertions · 5 opinions · 13 insights · 7 disclosures · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 12 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 8 are resolved, and 4 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Wesley argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
Wesley Chan Claims a 30% Hit Rate on Early-Stage Unicorn Investments
“My hit rates around, around 30%. Right. So, you know, one in every, you know, three or four companies I've hit, you know, are a billion dollar plus, and I've been an early investor.”
Wesley Chan Aug 22, 2022 ▶ 20:38 Wesley Chan: How I Created Google Analytics; The Founding Story of Gmail & Canva | 20VC #919 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Their most notable contradicted claim

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Ring will generate hundreds of millions in revenue in 2016
“He's, you know, going to do, you know, hundreds of millions of dollars of revenue, if not more this year.”
Wesley Chan Jun 29, 2016 ▶ 24:11 20VC: Felicis' Wesley Chan on The Rise of IoT, Getting Recruited by Larry Page & Creating Google's Biggest Success Disaster

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
100% certainty 2
none yet certainty 3
80% certainty 4
50% certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

Argument clarity: do they answer the question? how? →

4.2 / 5 directness 4.5 · coherence 4.4 · precision 4 · compression 3.4

redirected or did not address 2 of 49 assessed questions (4%). Watch them ▸

This is a score against a rubric. It is not a rank. Every host question → answer exchange is scored with names hidden on directness, coherence, precision and compression, 1–5 each, on meaning alone: disfluencies are ignored, and only raw unedited episodes count. This is the score that measures thought. Every scored exchange, scores shown → · The rubric and its checks →

How they sound: speaking style how? →

318 words/min while actually speaking · 15.6 um and uh per 1k words · 20.2 false starts per 1k · 31.3% of pauses land inside a clause

Measured by listening to the audio itself: 18,337 words across 2 episodes of raw-level tape, transcribed verbatim with every um and uh kept, each one attributed only where the alignment onto our timed stream is unambiguous. These are measurements of speaking style. We do not rank them: across this corpus, fluency and argument quality are nearly uncorrelated (ρ≈0.2), and smooth talking does not signal clear thinking. How it's measured →

How the interview went all their pushback → series average →

Across 2 rated episodes:

host pushback ▾ 3/10
pushed back at the host ▾ 2/10
setup questions received 60%

Everything Wesley Chan said on 20VC that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Opinion
Wesley Chan: More Than 75% of the Crypto Industry Is Scammy
“I was one of the first to like boohoo crypto. You know, some of it's unwell, but like I said, like, I can't be involved in a bunch of stuff where like, I think more than three quarters of it is scammy.”
Wesley Chan Aug 22, 2022 ▶ 50:46 Wesley Chan: How I Created Google Analytics; The Founding Story of Gmail & Canva | 20VC #919 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wesley Chan Refuses to Invest Without a 100-Year Company Vision
“If the founder comes to me and doesn't have a hundred year plan, I don't want to, I don't care. I don't want to be involved. We don't just do wedges, right?”
Wesley Chan Aug 22, 2022 ▶ 11:25 Wesley Chan: How I Created Google Analytics; The Founding Story of Gmail & Canva | 20VC #919 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Wesley Chan Ignores TAM and Market Size When Making Investments
“I don't do it. I don't actually, you know, look at the say, is the market big enough? I just say, does the founder have a unique insight on a market that hasn't been created yet or that, you know, they're about to expand into.”
Wesley Chan Aug 22, 2022 ▶ 16:52 Wesley Chan: How I Created Google Analytics; The Founding Story of Gmail & Canva | 20VC #919 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Opinion
Wesley Chan: Market Downturns Are Treacherous Times to Actually Invest Capital
“No, it's the best time to have a fund. It's not the best time to be investing, right? There's a lot of treacherous deals out there.”
Wesley Chan Aug 22, 2022 ▶ 31:44 Wesley Chan: How I Created Google Analytics; The Founding Story of Gmail & Canva | 20VC #919 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Wesley Chan Avoids Taking Pitches in Domains Where He Has Expertise
“So I try not to take any pitches in the areas I know too much about because I have a natural bias to pass on it and say, say no. And I'd rather, you know, have one of my colleagues or partners who don't know enough about it, take the pitch and then like be rea…”
Wesley Chan Aug 22, 2022 ▶ 35:24 Wesley Chan: How I Created Google Analytics; The Founding Story of Gmail & Canva | 20VC #919 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Democratizing expert software increases a company's total addressable market by 100x
“And by the way, it also increases your market by an order of a hundred extra more, right? You know, we're You know, Adobe's building Photoshop for probably hundreds of thousands of people who want to, who are skilled or want to make design their profession, an…”
Wesley Chan Jun 29, 2016 ▶ 16:48 20VC: Felicis' Wesley Chan on The Rise of IoT, Getting Recruited by Larry Page & Creating Google's Biggest Success Disaster
Opinion
Wesley Chan: Founders Hate Corporate VC Due to Divergent Interests
“Corporate venture capital has been an utter distaste and a success and founders hate it because, you know, the interest of the company that's investing in the interest of the founders diverge.”
Wesley Chan Aug 22, 2022 ▶ 2:26 Wesley Chan: How I Created Google Analytics; The Founding Story of Gmail & Canva | 20VC #919 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Wesley Chan: Unfavorable markets defeat great founders unless they adapt
“A market will beat out a great founder, but the best founders understand how to adapt to the market and find the bigger piece, right?”
Wesley Chan Aug 22, 2022 ▶ 12:52 Wesley Chan: How I Created Google Analytics; The Founding Story of Gmail & Canva | 20VC #919 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wesley Chan: Outlier returns come from market-creating companies
“My outlier returns the companies that I've had the privilege of working with Are ones that create new markets.”
Wesley Chan Aug 22, 2022 ▶ 16:09 Wesley Chan: How I Created Google Analytics; The Founding Story of Gmail & Canva | 20VC #919 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Supported
Wesley Chan Claims a 30% Hit Rate on Early-Stage Unicorn Investments
“My hit rates around, around 30%. Right. So, you know, one in every, you know, three or four companies I've hit, you know, are a billion dollar plus, and I've been an early investor.”
Wesley Chan Aug 22, 2022 ▶ 20:38 Wesley Chan: How I Created Google Analytics; The Founding Story of Gmail & Canva | 20VC #919 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Wesley Chan Led Canva's Series A Without 20% Ownership or Board Seat
“I did not have 20% ownership of Canva when I led the Series A. I did not have a board seat. In fact, so many people said no to them because they said, we're not giving you a board seat. Or they said, we're not giving you 20% ownership.”
Wesley Chan Aug 22, 2022 ▶ 24:43 Wesley Chan: How I Created Google Analytics; The Founding Story of Gmail & Canva | 20VC #919 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Wesley Chan: Dogmatic venture capitalists usually get knocked out quickly
“In fact, the VCs that subscribe to hard and fast rules that have dogma are usually the ones that get knocked out very quickly.”
Wesley Chan Aug 22, 2022 ▶ 28:46 Wesley Chan: How I Created Google Analytics; The Founding Story of Gmail & Canva | 20VC #919 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Disclosure
Wesley Chan Passed on Twilio's Seed Round Due to Expert Bias
“And I passed on it because, you know, I looked at it and, you know, talked to my team at Google voice and everybody looked at it. It's like, oh, this is easy to do. Like, you know, once the company gets big enough, they don't need toilet anymore. Boy, I didn't…”
Wesley Chan Aug 22, 2022 ▶ 34:34 Wesley Chan: How I Created Google Analytics; The Founding Story of Gmail & Canva | 20VC #919 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Ring will generate hundreds of millions in revenue in 2016
“He's, you know, going to do, you know, hundreds of millions of dollars of revenue, if not more this year.”
Wesley Chan Jun 29, 2016 ▶ 24:11 20VC: Felicis' Wesley Chan on The Rise of IoT, Getting Recruited by Larry Page & Creating Google's Biggest Success Disaster
Disclosure
Fitbit became a massive fund returner despite widespread investor skepticism
“With Fitbit, when I didn't bet on Fitbit, everybody else was looking at connected devices or looking at hardware and going, you can't make money on hardware. And I didn't, You know, sort of wrote a check into it and became one of the biggest, you know, sort of…”
Wesley Chan Jun 29, 2016 ▶ 26:04 20VC: Felicis' Wesley Chan on The Rise of IoT, Getting Recruited by Larry Page & Creating Google's Biggest Success Disaster
Opinion
Teenage messaging and emoji apps are silly, fleeting investments without durability
“A lot of folks are investing in something that I find kind of silly. Oh, I'm building apps for teenagers to talk with each other, or I'm building an app for people to sort of like you know, send emojis to people. I don't understand those markets. You know, the…”
Wesley Chan Jun 29, 2016 ▶ 27:34 20VC: Felicis' Wesley Chan on The Rise of IoT, Getting Recruited by Larry Page & Creating Google's Biggest Success Disaster
Assertion Not checkable as stated
FPV Ventures Makes Investment Decisions in Under 12 Hours
“It's Peg and myself and a couple. Folks were five people. We move really fast. You know, we can decide on things in less than 12 hours.”
Wesley Chan Aug 22, 2022 ▶ 3:29 Wesley Chan: How I Created Google Analytics; The Founding Story of Gmail & Canva | 20VC #919 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Wesley Chan Seeks 'Two Gigabyte' Product Breakthroughs Over Incremental Features
“I ask founders and I tell the story, what's your two gigabyte moment? Like, you know, you're telling me something that's incremental and I'm looking for the two gigabyte when everybody else has 25 megabyte moment.”
Wesley Chan Aug 22, 2022 ▶ 8:21 Wesley Chan: How I Created Google Analytics; The Founding Story of Gmail & Canva | 20VC #919 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Wesley Chan: Market sizing fails by conflating features with products
“So that's the fallacy of market sizing, right? Is that people conflate that people conflate the feature part of their things in the market size for that feature for that of the product, right?”
Wesley Chan Aug 22, 2022 ▶ 18:46 Wesley Chan: How I Created Google Analytics; The Founding Story of Gmail & Canva | 20VC #919 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Held up
Wesley Chan Caps FPV Ventures' $450M Fund at 20 Core Positions
“I can only do maybe 20 at most core positions in my fund.”
Wesley Chan Aug 22, 2022 ▶ 19:46 Wesley Chan: How I Created Google Analytics; The Founding Story of Gmail & Canva | 20VC #919 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Chan: Evaluate early startups on a founder's ability to evolve products
“My biggest lesson learned on investing is that what you see today is not what, if the founder truly visionary will not be what the company is a year or two years or five or 10 years from then. So you have to really believe that the founder is capable of morphi…”
Wesley Chan Aug 22, 2022 ▶ 36:32 Wesley Chan: How I Created Google Analytics; The Founding Story of Gmail & Canva | 20VC #919 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Identifying Product Visionaries Requires Asking Non-Gameable Questions Ten Different Ways
“You have to ask it 10 different ways. In ways that make sense. And, you know, again, that's one of those things I want to give away the trade secret to how I do it, but like you, you're, you have to ask it 10 different ways and listen carefully. And if the ans…”
Wesley Chan Aug 22, 2022 ▶ 38:24 Wesley Chan: How I Created Google Analytics; The Founding Story of Gmail & Canva | 20VC #919 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Insight
Wesley Chan: Sales Leaders and CMOs Often Make the Best Product Managers
“Some of the salespeople, some sales, you know, leaders and CMOs have lots of product expertise. You have to remember, they're close to the customer. They've explained to the customer what the product does. They, you know, in their previous jobs have learned wh…”
Wesley Chan Aug 22, 2022 ▶ 42:09 Wesley Chan: How I Created Google Analytics; The Founding Story of Gmail & Canva | 20VC #919 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Partly supported
FPV Ventures Closed Its $450M Inaugural Fund in Under Two Months
“We were able to close in, you know, less than a couple months. And we were, you know, almost two, if not three X oversubscribed in the commitments that we were able to take room for them. We capped it at four 50, right?”
Wesley Chan Aug 22, 2022 ▶ 43:44 Wesley Chan: How I Created Google Analytics; The Founding Story of Gmail & Canva | 20VC #919 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Show 13statements(13 left)

The other half of the tape: Wesley Chan's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 14 times in 5 episodes on 20VC. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Harry Stebbings 5Victoria Treyger 4Aydin Senkut 3Melanie Perkins 2

Every mention by year

Appearances (2)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
Wesley Chan: How I Created Google Analytics; The Founding Story of Gmail & Canva | 20VC # Aug 22, 2022 41m
20VC: Felicis' Wesley Chan on The Rise of IoT, Getting Recruited by Larry Page & Creating Jun 29, 2016 23m
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